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Poll: Andrew Gillum leads Ron DeSantis by 6 in Florida governor’s race

Gillum actually leads by less than he did in the last version of this poll.

The most recent governor's race poll shows what every independent general election survey has shown: Andrew Gillum is winning.

A newly released Quinnipiac poll of 1,161 likely voters in Florida shows the Democratic nominee, Gillum, ahead of his Republican opponent, Ron DeSantis, 52 percent to 46 percent. The six point lead is outside the poll's margin of error of 3.5 percent. The landline and cell phone survey was conducted between Oct. 17 and Oct. 21.

Driving Gillum's lead was the candidate's exceptional performance among Florida independents, Quinnipiac pollster Peter A. Brown said in a release touting the poll. According to the survey, Gillum leads DeSantis in that category, 57 percent to 39 percent.

Gillum also dominated DeSantis among women, 59 percent to 38 percent, and among Hispanic voters, 59 percent to 36 percent.

But it wasn't all good news for the Democrat. Gillum's margin in the poll actually shrank from the last Q poll, which found him leading by nine points. And the most poll found that DeSantis' favorability has crept up in recent weeks.

Some internal GOP surveys have shown DeSantis ahead of Gillum in the governor's race, but independent polls show that Gillum is the favorite. The election forecasting website Fivethirtyeight lists the governor's race as "Likely D," giving Gillum about a 78 percent chance to win. (Of note: the site gave 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton similar odds to beat Donald Trump.)

Fivethirtyeight also gave Quinnipiac an "A-" rating as a pollster in its most recent pollster ratings.

Read the Quinnipiac governor's race poll's methodology here.

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