1. Hurricane

Will weakening Hurricane Florence affect the U.S.? Some models put Eastern Seaboard on alert

[National Hurricane Center]
Published Sep. 6, 2018

Hurricane Florence remains far out in the Atlantic, but Bermuda — and perhaps the Eastern Seaboard — remain on alert as various models show it could begin to impact those areas by next week.

The biggest question in the next few days: Will the storm take its previously projected turn to the north, or — as some of the latest models suggest — will it stay on more of a westerly path that could target areas along the mid-Atlantic, including North Carolina?

Wind shear has helped weaken Florence into a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds as off 11 a.m., and it was about 1,115 miles east-southeast of Bermuda.

PREVIOUS STORY: Hurricane Florence strengthens into a Category 4 storm as two other tropical waves develop

The track still remains in flux, though, as it currently continues on a northwesterly path at 12 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Hurricane center forecasters say it will slow down before turning toward the west by the weekend, and could produce swells and high surf in Bermuda by Friday and parts of the East Coast over the weekend.

Meteorologists and weather watchers are keeping a close eye on the path, and the changing models that have Florence shifting to the west.

Keeping a close eye on #Florence...
While there is POTENTIAL for landfall along the East Coast sometime late next week, we are still 5+ days out. There continues to be plenty of variability with model tracks with dozens of more model runs to come b/t now and next week.

In general there was more of a trend to the west (closer to the US) in the overnight runs. #Florence

Everyone on the East Coast should stay informed on #Florence

LATEST ON CAT.3 #FLORENCE: After many days, wind shear & dry air is beginning to infiltrate the hurricane, especially from the SW side, where the core looks to be "thinning out". But, it is heading into very warm waters, and will move NW until a major fork Monday...OTS or west.

11pm advisory from NHC downgrades #Florence to a Cat 3. There is, however, a key note in their discussion. NHC now suggesting the N Atl trough (noted earlier as a key "inflection point") will miss her, allowing the storm to continue westward. Track adjusted left as well. #tropics

You can see the shear really making #Florence very asymmetrical this morning (weaker). It's racing to get to the warmer water too. Not knowing the final outcome of this shear creates even more uncertainty as to where it may go down the road.
= low confidence forecast.

HURRICANE GUIDE: Emergency information, tracking map and storm resources

While the immediate attention is on Florence, forecasters continue to monitor two other tropical waves that could develop into the next tropical systems — which could be named Helene and Isaac.

Conditions are favorable for the first, approaching the Cabo Verde Islands, to become Helene. It has a 70 percent chance of development by this weekend. The second has yet to move off Africa's west coast, but still has a 50 percent chance of development in the next five days, forecasters said.

Gordon, meanwhile, has weakened into a tropical depression over Mississippi but will be a heavy rainmaker as it continues on a path to the north, eventually reaching the Great Lakes, forecasters said.


EXTENDED FORECAST: The 10-day outlook for the Tampa Bay area

DOWNLOAD: Get the tbo Weather App and see where storms are headed

LIVE RADAR: Interactive storm track, hourly outlooks, 10-day forecasts and weather alerts

ALERTS: The latest advisories from the National Weather Service


  1. Peggy Wood, center, attends a community announcement with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, right, in Mexico Beach in September. DOUGLAS R. CLIFFORD  |  Tampa Bay Times
    The Wood family presses forward with plans to rebuild the Driftwood Inn amid a changing town.
  2.  Mexico Beach, one year anniversary of the landfall of Hurricane Michael. DOUGLAS R. CLIFFORD  |  Tampa Bay Times
    One year later, Mexico Beach is still recovering from the Category 5 storm.
  3. Meteorologists are keeping watch on a system in the mid-Atlantic that could develop into a tropical storm sometime in the next two days. A system off the eastern coast of Florida will bring heavy rainfall to the state before moving to the east, north of the Bahamas. National Weather Service
    While the chance of further development is low, the system will bring heavy rains to the state.
  4. The National Hurricane center National Hurricane Service
    The system poses no threat to Florida.
  5. The endangered torreya tree at the Gregory House at Torreya State Park north of Bristol. Special to the Times
    The storm had some unintended — and devastating — consequences for a small but mighty endangered tree.
  6. In this Sept. 16, 2019 photo, Remelda Thomas bows her head in prayer in her home in McLean's Town Cay, Grand Bahamas Island, Bahamas. Thomas said she lost eight family members in the storm. While sleeping one night after the storm the wind was blowing and the tarp over the hole in her roof was snapping and it brought back the fear from Hurricane Dorian. CHRIS DAY  |  AP
    Dorian mustered massive strength over warm waters and lashed the Bahamas for almost 40 hours. The ocean roared ashore and swelled 20 feet high.
  7. Siesta Key Oyster Bar pulled $15,000 off its walls to help aid victims of Hurricane Dorian. Facebook
    Siesta Key Oyster Bar also joined three other Siesta Key Village businesses in raising another $10,000 during a separate fundraiser.
  8. Oct. 2• Hurricane
    Hurricane Lorenzo is expected to begin impacting Ireland in the next 24 hours. Forecasters estimate that the British Isles could see 90 mile-per-hour winds. National Weather Service
    The latest forecast shows strong winds are on the way for the British Isles.
  9. As Hurricane Lorenzo continues to move northeast towards Ireland, two disturbance have surface in the Caribbean. National Weather Service
    The pair have a low chance of further development.
  10. Hurricane Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane force winds to the Azores by Tuesday, Ireland and the UK as early as Wednesday night. National Weather Service
    The storm is set to lash the Azores in the next couple of days.