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  1. Hurricane

That tropical disturbance will soak South Florida. It could also become a tropical depression.

But the Tampa Bay area will likely be spared the heavy rains to fall on South Florida.
Satellite imagery shows a tropical disturbance moving past Florida's east coast to Florida on Saturday, August 24, 2019 [National Hurricane Service]
Published Aug. 23
Updated Aug. 24

That tropical disturbance over the Bahamas now has a 90 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression early next week, but forecasters warn that it could happen even sooner.

That could leave South Florida having to endure another rain event.

But the Tampa Bay area will likely be spared this weekend.

“The east coast will see an increased chance of rain and South Florida has the best chance of heavy downpours,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Stephen Shiveley.

RELATED STORY: The rain keeps falling. The water keeps rising. And catfish roam the streets.

The system on Saturday was over South Florida. It’s producing a broad area of low pressure, cloudiness and storms. However, it could organize into a tropical depression as it moves northward away from Florida and up the Atlantic coast.

Forecasters give the disturbance a 70 percent chance of forming over the next two days and a 80 percent chance of forming over the next five days, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Regardless of formation, the system is likely to send heavy rains across Florida this weekend.

Inland Florida might see more rain as a result, but the bay area should only see its usual summer showers.

But the Tampa Bay region should still keep a wary eye on the Atlantic in the coming weeks.

“September is our peak,” Shiveley said. “We’re not quite there yet, so we need to watch out for more systems that could form up."

RELATED STORY: Rain-soaked Tampa Bay is under a flood watch. Pets are at risk, too.

RELATED STORY: Snell Isle and Shore Acres face flooding from rain

Forecasters said the flow created by the two events will set up rain patterns similar to the ones Florida saw last week with most activity coming to the coast late night and into the morning, then heading inland as the day progresses.

2019 Tampa Bay Times Hurricane Guide

HURRICANE SEASON IS HERE: Get ready and stay informed at tampabay.com/hurricane

PREPARE YOUR STUFF: Get your documents and your data ready for a storm

BUILD YOUR KIT: The stuff you’ll need to stay safe — and comfortable — for the storm

PROTECT YOUR PETS: Your pets can’t get ready for a storm. That’s your job

NEED TO KNOW: Click here to find your evacuation zone and shelter

What Michael taught the Panhandle and Tampa Bay

What the Panhandle’s top emergency officials learned from Michael

‘We’re not going to give up.’ What a school superintendent learned from Michael.

What Tampa Bay school leaders fear most from a storm

Tampa Bay’s top cops fear for those who stay behind

Contact Daniel Figueroa IV at dfigueroa@tampabay.com. Follow @danuscripts

ALSO IN THIS SECTION

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    The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash floods in the eastern Caribbean.
  2. Atlantic tropical cyclones and disturbances, as of 11 a.m. Thursday. National Hurricane Center
    It is projected to pass north of Puerto Rico on Saturday and east of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.
  3. Atlantic tropical cyclones and disturbances, as of 5 a.m. Thursday. National Hurricane Center
    The system should stay well east of the United States, according to forecasters.
  4. Tropical Storm Jerry is expected to become reach hurricane status on Friday. National Hurricane Center
    Forecasters expect the storm to reach hurricane status on Friday.
  5. This satellite image shows Hurricane Michael on Oct. 9, 2018, as it enters the Gulf of Mexico. It made landfall near Mexico Beach in the Panhandle as a Category 5 storm. [Photo courtesy of NOAA] NOAA
    Nearly a year after the storm, 18,000 claims are still open.
  6. The tropical outlook on Wednesday, Sept. 17, 2019. National Hurricane Center
    The depression is expected to become Tropical Storm Jerry by early Wednesday, then strengthen to a hurricane by the weekend.
  7. Hurricane Humberto's projected path as of 5 a.m. Tuesday, according to the National Hurricane Center. National Hurricane Center
    It could become a major hurricane by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.
  8. The forecast track for Hurricane Humberto, as of 5 a.m. Monday. National Hurricane Center
    The Category 1 hurricane is moving away from the southeastern United States and expected to approach Bermuda by Wednesday night.
  9. Mos Antenor, 42, drives a bulldozer while clearing the road after Hurricane Dorian Mclean's Town, Grand Bahama, Bahamas, Friday Sept. 13, 2019. (AP Photo/Ramon Espinosa) RAMON ESPINOSA  |  AP
    Threatening to exacerbate islands’ problems, Humberto’s rains were falling on Abaco island.
  10. Members of the fire rescue team Task Force 8, from Gainesville, Florida, help remove a body one week after Hurricane Dorian hit The Mudd neighborhood in the Marsh Harbor area of Abaco Island, Bahamas, Monday, Sept. 9, 2019. Dorian, the most powerful hurricane in the northwestern Bahamas' recorded history, has killed at least 44 people in Bahamas as of Sunday, Sept. 8, according to the government. GONZALO GAUDENZI  |  AP
    Many in the northwestern Bahamas, known for its casinos, golf courses and mega yachts, worry they will be forced into deep poverty.
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