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  1. Hurricane

That tropical disturbance will soak South Florida. It could also become a tropical depression.

But the Tampa Bay area will likely be spared the heavy rains to fall on South Florida.
Satellite imagery shows a tropical disturbance moving past Florida's east coast to Florida on Saturday, August 24, 2019 [National Hurricane Service]
Published Aug. 23
Updated Aug. 24

That tropical disturbance over the Bahamas now has a 90 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression early next week, but forecasters warn that it could happen even sooner.

That could leave South Florida having to endure another rain event.

But the Tampa Bay area will likely be spared this weekend.

“The east coast will see an increased chance of rain and South Florida has the best chance of heavy downpours,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Stephen Shiveley.

RELATED STORY: The rain keeps falling. The water keeps rising. And catfish roam the streets.

The system on Saturday was over South Florida. It’s producing a broad area of low pressure, cloudiness and storms. However, it could organize into a tropical depression as it moves northward away from Florida and up the Atlantic coast.

Forecasters give the disturbance a 70 percent chance of forming over the next two days and a 80 percent chance of forming over the next five days, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Regardless of formation, the system is likely to send heavy rains across Florida this weekend.

Inland Florida might see more rain as a result, but the bay area should only see its usual summer showers.

But the Tampa Bay region should still keep a wary eye on the Atlantic in the coming weeks.

“September is our peak,” Shiveley said. “We’re not quite there yet, so we need to watch out for more systems that could form up."

RELATED STORY: Rain-soaked Tampa Bay is under a flood watch. Pets are at risk, too.

RELATED STORY: Snell Isle and Shore Acres face flooding from rain

Forecasters said the flow created by the two events will set up rain patterns similar to the ones Florida saw last week with most activity coming to the coast late night and into the morning, then heading inland as the day progresses.

2019 Tampa Bay Times Hurricane Guide

HURRICANE SEASON IS HERE: Get ready and stay informed at tampabay.com/hurricane

PREPARE YOUR STUFF: Get your documents and your data ready for a storm

BUILD YOUR KIT: The stuff you’ll need to stay safe — and comfortable — for the storm

PROTECT YOUR PETS: Your pets can’t get ready for a storm. That’s your job

NEED TO KNOW: Click here to find your evacuation zone and shelter

What Michael taught the Panhandle and Tampa Bay

What the Panhandle’s top emergency officials learned from Michael

‘We’re not going to give up.’ What a school superintendent learned from Michael.

What Tampa Bay school leaders fear most from a storm

Tampa Bay’s top cops fear for those who stay behind

Contact Daniel Figueroa IV at dfigueroa@tampabay.com. Follow @danuscripts

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