1. Hurricane

Tropical Storm Humberto likely to form within 24 hours, take path eerily similar to Dorian

The potential cyclone is expected to ride up the east coast, but will still send rain to Tampa Bay.
The tropical outlook on Friday Sept. 14, 2019. [National Hurricane Center]
Published Sep. 13
Updated Sep. 13

A tropical disturbance near the Bahamas is “forecast to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm later today or Saturday," according to the National Hurricane Center, and is set to bring periods of heavy rain to Tampa Bay this weekend.

The Hurricane Center forecasts the storm to become a tropical cyclone Friday, earning the moniker Tropical Cyclone Nine, then strengthen to Tropical Storm Humberto early Saturday as wind speeds climb to more than 39 mph.

The disturbance Friday morning was barely over 100 miles east of the northwestern Bahamas, which was ravaged by Hurricane Dorian’s brutal 185 mph winds less than two weeks ago. The powerful hurricane is blamed for at least 50 deaths in the Bahamas with another 1,300 reported missing. A tropical storm warning was issued Thursday for the northwestern Bahamas. Tropical storm-force winds and heavy rain are expected to impact the islands, but significant storm surge is not expected. Another storm, even just at tropical strength, would complicate relief efforts, forecasters said.

As the center of the storm begins to form, forecasters have been able to fine-tune a track sending it over the Bahamas and to the west where it will ride up Florida’s east coast before tracing the southeast U.S. The disturbance is not expected to pass tropical storm strength, but the current track is nearly identical to the path Hurricane Dorian took before dissipating near Nova Scotia.

The National Weather Service forecasts Hurricane Dorian's path on Aug. 31. The anticipated Tropical Storm Humberto's forecast track is eerily similar to the path Hurricane Dorian took. [National Hurricane Center]

A Tropical Storm Watch is in place from Jupiter inlet to the Flagler-Volusia county line, keeping Tampa Bay out of the projected path, but the storm is still expected to be felt on the Gulf Coast. Forecasters said the storm should begin to bring breezy, cloudy conditions along with some tropical moisture to the region today and increase through the weekend. Tropical moisture tends to dump brief, but heavy periods of rain, National Weather Service forecaster Dan Noah said.

The Hurricane Center is watching two other disturbances out in the Atlantic that have low chances of formation over the next few days.

2019 Tampa Bay Times Hurricane Guide

HURRICANE SEASON IS HERE: Get ready and stay informed at

PREPARE YOUR STUFF: Get your documents and your data ready for a storm

BUILD YOUR KIT: The stuff you’ll need to stay safe — and comfortable — for the storm

PROTECT YOUR PETS: Your pets can’t get ready for a storm. That’s your job

NEED TO KNOW: Click here to find your evacuation zone and shelter

What Michael taught the Panhandle and Tampa Bay

What the Panhandle’s top emergency officials learned from Michael

‘We’re not going to give up.’ What a school superintendent learned from Michael

What Tampa Bay school leaders fear most from a storm

Tampa Bay’s top cops fear for those who stay behind


  1. This satellite image shows Hurricane Michael on Oct. 9, 2018, as it enters the Gulf of Mexico. It made landfall near Mexico Beach in the Panhandle as a Category 5 storm. Florida State University professor Wenyuan Fan said the storm probably created "stormquakes" offshore in the gulf, too. [Photo courtesy of the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration]] NOAA
    Analysis of a decade of records shows hurricanes causing seismic activity on continental shelf
  2. Tropical depression 15 has formed in the eastern Atlantic. National Weather Service
    The newly formed system joins a tropical wave off the coast of South America.
  3. Peggy Wood, center, attends a community announcement with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, right, in Mexico Beach in September. DOUGLAS R. CLIFFORD  |  Tampa Bay Times
    The Wood family presses forward with plans to rebuild the Driftwood Inn amid a changing town.
  4.  Mexico Beach, one year anniversary of the landfall of Hurricane Michael. DOUGLAS R. CLIFFORD  |  Tampa Bay Times
    One year later, Mexico Beach is still recovering from the Category 5 storm.
  5. Meteorologists are keeping watch on a system in the mid-Atlantic that could develop into a tropical storm sometime in the next two days. A system off the eastern coast of Florida will bring heavy rainfall to the state before moving to the east, north of the Bahamas. National Weather Service
    While the chance of further development is low, the system will bring heavy rains to the state.
  6. The National Hurricane center National Hurricane Service
    The system poses no threat to Florida.
  7. The endangered torreya tree at the Gregory House at Torreya State Park north of Bristol. Special to the Times
    The storm had some unintended — and devastating — consequences for a small but mighty endangered tree.
  8. In this Sept. 16, 2019 photo, Remelda Thomas bows her head in prayer in her home in McLean's Town Cay, Grand Bahamas Island, Bahamas. Thomas said she lost eight family members in the storm. While sleeping one night after the storm the wind was blowing and the tarp over the hole in her roof was snapping and it brought back the fear from Hurricane Dorian. CHRIS DAY  |  AP
    Dorian mustered massive strength over warm waters and lashed the Bahamas for almost 40 hours. The ocean roared ashore and swelled 20 feet high.
  9. Siesta Key Oyster Bar pulled $15,000 off its walls to help aid victims of Hurricane Dorian. Facebook
    Siesta Key Oyster Bar also joined three other Siesta Key Village businesses in raising another $10,000 during a separate fundraiser.
  10. Oct. 2• Hurricane
    Hurricane Lorenzo is expected to begin impacting Ireland in the next 24 hours. Forecasters estimate that the British Isles could see 90 mile-per-hour winds. National Weather Service
    The latest forecast shows strong winds are on the way for the British Isles.