1. Hurricane

Tropical Depression Ten has formed but is expected to miss Florida as hurricane forms

The depression is expected to become Tropical Storm Jerry by early Wednesday, then strengthen to a hurricane by the weekend.
The tropical outlook on Wednesday, Sept. 17, 2019. [National Hurricane Center]
Published Sep. 17
Updated Sep. 17

It’s time to keep an eye on the next tropical system, according to the National Hurricane Center.

A tropical wave the Hurricane Center has been monitoring in the Atlantic strengthened into a cyclone Wednesday morning and is forecast to continue growing. Meteorologists expect Tropical Depression Ten to become Tropical Storm Jerry by Wednesday morning and Hurricane Jerry by Friday as its current cone threatens many already storm-ravaged areas.

Tropical Depression Ten was heading northwest at 12 mph with sustained winds of 30 mph Wednesday morning. Most spaghetti models show the storm hooking back into the Atlantic somewhere between Puerto Rico and the southern Bahamas, but forecasters said it’s too early to predict its path.

A few models show the storm continuing through the Bahamas and toward Florida. The storm’s cone of uncertainty, which shows a potential path, includes most of Puerto Rico, a portion of the Dominican Republic and encroaches on the Bahamas after reaching hurricane strength. It’s expected to reach that area this weekend.

Puerto Rico is still hurting from 2017′s Hurricane Maria and the Bahamas were recently devastated by the immensely powerful Hurricane Dorian.

While trends show the storm heading back out to sea before reaching Florida, Hurricane Humberto could play a big role in its movement. As Humberto fizzles out, it’s creating high pressure south of it. Storms generally steer around those systems. Forecasters are watching to see what kind of high forms in Humberto’s wake before making more predictions.

Even small changes can have a big effect over time, National Weather Service forecaster Austen Flannery said. And trends tend to change.

2019 Tampa Bay Times Hurricane Guide

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NEED TO KNOW: Click here to find your evacuation zone and shelter

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  1. This satellite image shows Hurricane Michael on Oct. 9, 2018, as it enters the Gulf of Mexico. It made landfall near Mexico Beach in the Panhandle as a Category 5 storm. Florida State University professor Wenyuan Fan said the storm probably created "stormquakes" offshore in the gulf, too. [Photo courtesy of the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration]] NOAA
    Analysis of a decade of records shows hurricanes causing seismic activity on continental shelf
  2. Tropical depression 15 has formed in the eastern Atlantic. National Weather Service
    The newly formed system joins a tropical wave off the coast of South America.
  3. Peggy Wood, center, attends a community announcement with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, right, in Mexico Beach in September. DOUGLAS R. CLIFFORD  |  Tampa Bay Times
    The Wood family presses forward with plans to rebuild the Driftwood Inn amid a changing town.
  4.  Mexico Beach, one year anniversary of the landfall of Hurricane Michael. DOUGLAS R. CLIFFORD  |  Tampa Bay Times
    One year later, Mexico Beach is still recovering from the Category 5 storm.
  5. Meteorologists are keeping watch on a system in the mid-Atlantic that could develop into a tropical storm sometime in the next two days. A system off the eastern coast of Florida will bring heavy rainfall to the state before moving to the east, north of the Bahamas. National Weather Service
    While the chance of further development is low, the system will bring heavy rains to the state.
  6. The National Hurricane center National Hurricane Service
    The system poses no threat to Florida.
  7. The endangered torreya tree at the Gregory House at Torreya State Park north of Bristol. Special to the Times
    The storm had some unintended — and devastating — consequences for a small but mighty endangered tree.
  8. In this Sept. 16, 2019 photo, Remelda Thomas bows her head in prayer in her home in McLean's Town Cay, Grand Bahamas Island, Bahamas. Thomas said she lost eight family members in the storm. While sleeping one night after the storm the wind was blowing and the tarp over the hole in her roof was snapping and it brought back the fear from Hurricane Dorian. CHRIS DAY  |  AP
    Dorian mustered massive strength over warm waters and lashed the Bahamas for almost 40 hours. The ocean roared ashore and swelled 20 feet high.
  9. Siesta Key Oyster Bar pulled $15,000 off its walls to help aid victims of Hurricane Dorian. Facebook
    Siesta Key Oyster Bar also joined three other Siesta Key Village businesses in raising another $10,000 during a separate fundraiser.
  10. Oct. 2• Hurricane
    Hurricane Lorenzo is expected to begin impacting Ireland in the next 24 hours. Forecasters estimate that the British Isles could see 90 mile-per-hour winds. National Weather Service
    The latest forecast shows strong winds are on the way for the British Isles.