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Tropical disturbance in Gulf of Mexico not expected to be another Nestor

Most models don’t project the system to become anything stronger than a tropical depression. And a short-lived one, at that.
The low-pressure system in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has a 60-percent chance of development over the next two to five days. [National Hurricane Center]
Published Oct. 24
Updated Oct. 24

Yes, there is another tropical disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

But, no, it is not expected to become another Nestor.

The low-pressure system moving Thursday over the Bay of Campeche has a 60-percent chance of development over the next two to five days, according to the National Hurricane Center.

But most reliable models don’t project the system to become anything stronger than a tropical depression, said forecaster Stephen Shiveley of the National Weather Service.

And a short-lived one, at that.

The system is expected to merge with a cold front by late Friday, which should push it north before it ever gets to Florida.

If anything, the system will increase our rain chances this weekend.

“Right now, we’re not expecting any major impacts from whatever it is,” Shiveley said.

Why another system in the same area so soon after Nestor?

Because its waters are warmer than those of the Atlantic, it is not unusual for tropical systems to develop in the Gulf early or late in hurricane season, Shiveley said. But those systems don’t typically have much time to develop because they are surrounded by so much land.

“The last few years, anything that affects Florida early or late, most of the time we’re not gonna see a Cat. 5 or Cat. 4 form this late in the season if it’s forming in the Gulf,” Shiveley said. “Because there’s so much land, it’s gonna hit something eventually.”

2019 Tampa Bay Times Hurricane Guide

HURRICANE SEASON IS HERE: Get ready and stay informed at tampabay.com/hurricane

PREPARE YOUR STUFF: Get your documents and your data ready for a storm

BUILD YOUR KIT: The stuff you’ll need to stay safe — and comfortable — for the storm

PROTECT YOUR PETS: Your pets can’t get ready for a storm. That’s your job

NEED TO KNOW: Click here to find your evacuation zone and shelter

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