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Subtropical Storm Arthur will likely form this weekend

It drenched the Florida Keys on Friday. If it strengthens into the first named storm of 2020, it should have little impact on the Tampa Bay area.

A trough of low pressure located over the Straits of Florida that is drenching the Florida Keys will likely develop into the first named storm of the season on Saturday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

It has an 80 percent chance of strengthening into Subtropical Storm Arthur, meteorologist say. Hurricane season doesn’t officially start until June 1, but in recent years storms have developed early.

However, the system is not expected to increase the chance of rain in the Tampa Bay region this weekend, said Spectrum Bay News 9 Chief Meteorologist Mike Clay.

“Tropical storms coming in May have become the norm,” Clay said. “But most of these have stayed far away from us.

"This will happen again as the system will move out into the Atlantic toward the Bahamas. The east coast will have the rain and high surf, we’ll have mostly dry air.”

There is a 10 percent of rain on Saturday, according to Bay News 9′s forecast. Sunday and Monday will likely be dry and sunny, with high temperatures near 90 degrees.

If the trough develops into a subtropical storm, it will likely do so while near the Bahamas.

“A tropical or subtropical storm is likely to form in the vicinity of the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday,” said the weather bulletin the hurricane center issued Friday. “This system will bring heavy rainfall to portions of the Florida Keys, southeast Florida and the Bahamas for another day or so.”

The National Weather Service’s Miami office reported flooding in Miami-Dade County and issued flash-flood warnings for the county through Saturday morning.

After veering over the Straits of Florida and toward the Gulf of Mexico, the disturbance is expected to double-back in a northeast direction into the western Atlantic Ocean later this weekend and early next week, according to the weather service.

Tropical-storm wind gusts are possible in southern Florida, forecasters say. The east coast will likely see hazardous marine conditions, but not much beyond that.

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