1. Local Weather
  2. /
  3. Hurricane

The Atlantic has 3 tropical systems. Which will strengthen first?

The National Hurricane Center believes the system furthest away, off the coast of Africa, has the strongest chance right now.

There is another tropical disturbance that forecasters can add to the other two they’re monitoring in the Atlantic Ocean.

All have the potential to develop into the next named storms of this busy Atlantic storm season.

None poses an imminent threat to Florida, according to the National Hurricane Center, but they all have a growing chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm next week. That concerns anyone who lives within range of a hurricane or tropical storm that comes roaring out of the Atlantic.

Related: MONDAY UPDATE: Forecasters watch 4 systems in the tropics, expect 2 to strengthen
The National Hurricane Center's map of the location of three tropical systems in the Atlantic Ocean on Saturday.
The National Hurricane Center's map of the location of three tropical systems in the Atlantic Ocean on Saturday. [ National Hurricane Center ]

The one with the highest chance of developing into a named storm is Disturbance 2, a tropical wave located just southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands in the eastern Atlantic near the African coast. This area is known for being a nursery for tropical systems that eventually become hurricanes, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration hurricane researcher Jason Dunion.

There’s a 40 percent chance that Disturbance 2 strengthens into a tropical storm in the next five days, according to the hurricane center’s 2 p.m. Saturday advisory, while there is a zero percent chance it does so in the next two days or so. It is expected to move slowly into the tropical Atlantic, and that’s where it is expected to strengthen.

Disturbance 1, located about 550 miles east of the Windward Islands in the tropical Atlantic, has a 20 percent chance of developing in the next two days or so and a 30 percent chance over the next five days.

The hurricane center says Disturbance 1 will likely develop gradually over the next several days while it moves westward at about 15 mph toward the Lesser Antilles. It was producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms on Saturday.

Disturbance 3 is the newest tropical system to form and is the closest to the U.S. coast. It was just an area of low pressure when it appeared Saturday afternoon, and has a 20 percent chance of development over the next 5 days. It was located off the coast of the Carolinas and is expected to move northeast, away from North America.

The first system to strengthen will become the 14th named storm of the season and receive the name Nana. The 15th named storm will be known as Omar and the 16th will be Paulette.

Regardless of tropical activity, Tampa Bay has a rainy couple of days in store. Spectrum Bay News 9 Meteorologist Diane Kacmarik said Saturday that rain will pound the area through Monday as storms continue to move east from the Gulf of Mexico.

Both Sunday and Monday will have a 70 percent chance of rain and a high of 88 for the region.

• • •

2020 Tampa Bay Times Hurricane Guide

HURRICANE SEASON IS HERE: Get ready and stay informed at

PREPARE FOR COVID-19 AND THE STORM: The CDC's tips for this pandemic-hurricane season

PREPARE YOUR STUFF: Get your documents and your data ready for a storm

BUILD YOUR KIT: The stuff you’ll need to stay safe — and comfortable — for the storm

PROTECT YOUR PETS: Your pets can’t get ready for a storm. That’s your job

NEED TO KNOW: Click here to find your evacuation zone and shelter

Lessons from Hurricane Michael

What the Panhandle’s top emergency officials learned from Michael

‘We’re not going to give up.’ What a school superintendent learned from Michael

What Tampa Bay school leaders fear most from a storm

Tampa Bay’s top cops fear for those who stay behind