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Forecasters continue to monitor tropical disturbances in Atlantic

One is being given an 80 percent chance of forming into a tropical cyclone by next week.

One of a trio of tropical disturbances in the Atlantic Ocean was given an 80 percent chance of formation in the next five days, according to the National Hurricane Center’s Friday afternoon update.

The other two disturbances were given a 30 and 60 percent chance of formation in that same time frame, according to the hurricane center. None of the three disturbance poses an imminent threat to Florida, as they’re not expected to strengthen into a named storm until after the holiday weekend at the earliest.

A fourth disturbance, located in the northern Atlantic, was recognized by the hurricane center but was given zero chance of formation in the next five days.

The system with an 80 percent chance of development, named Disturbance 3, was a tropical wave and area of low pressure that was just west of the Cabo Verde Islands on Friday. It was producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. It is expected to move west-northwest into the Atlantic Ocean in the coming days while strengthening.

The five-day projected path of Disturbance 3 in the Atlantic Ocean on Saturday, Sept. 4.
The five-day projected path of Disturbance 3 in the Atlantic Ocean on Saturday, Sept. 4. [ National Hurricane Center ]

Disturbance 3 is expected to become a tropical depression around Tuesday, according to the hurricane center.

Spectrum Bay News 9 Meteorologist Brian McClure said this disturbance will be the most important one to watch over the next week. Even then, however, it is too far out to tell if the disturbance will ever make it to land.

“It may not happen until early next week, but I think that is the one we watch the most carefully next week,” McClure said Thursday night. “But the good news for us is that, not only is it way out in the Atlantic, but it may never make it to land. ... We don’t have to worry about anything over the holiday weekend.”

The other two disturbances are farther away from strengthening. If they are to form, early projections show them moving west off the coast of Africa, where they were located Friday, and into the mid-Atlantic.

A view of the Atlantic Ocean from Satellite on Sept. 3, 2020. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring four disturbances in the Atlantic Ocean.
A view of the Atlantic Ocean from Satellite on Sept. 3, 2020. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring four disturbances in the Atlantic Ocean. [ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ]

The climatological peak for hurricane season is Sept. 10 — placing this newest line of storms, seemingly, right on time.

Elsewhere, the system that was once Tropical Storm Omar continued to weaken Friday. It is expected to be completely dissipated by Saturday, the hurricane center said, meeting the same fate that Hurricane Nana faced Friday morning.

The next storms to strengthen in the Atlantic will be called Paulette, Rene and Sally.

• • •

2020 Tampa Bay Times Hurricane Guide

HURRICANE SEASON IS HERE: Get ready and stay informed at tampabay.com/hurricane

PREPARE FOR COVID-19 AND THE STORM: The CDC's tips for this pandemic-hurricane season

PREPARE YOUR STUFF: Get your documents and your data ready for a storm

BUILD YOUR KIT: The stuff you’ll need to stay safe — and comfortable — for the storm

PROTECT YOUR PETS: Your pets can’t get ready for a storm. That’s your job

NEED TO KNOW: Click here to find your evacuation zone and shelter

Lessons from Hurricane Michael

What the Panhandle’s top emergency officials learned from Michael

‘We’re not going to give up.’ What a school superintendent learned from Michael

What Tampa Bay school leaders fear most from a storm

Tampa Bay’s top cops fear for those who stay behind

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