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Storm developing in western Gulf; no Tampa Bay worries yet

The weather system over the Bay of Campeche became somewhat better organized Sunday and slow development was possible while it meanders near the coast of Mexico.
System 1 off Mexico on this National Hurricane Center image was given a 20 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression early in the week, 50 percent later in the week.
System 1 off Mexico on this National Hurricane Center image was given a 20 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression early in the week, 50 percent later in the week. [ National Hurricane Center ]
Published Jun. 13
Updated Jun. 13

TAMPA — The National Weather Service in Tampa is keeping its eye on a weather system in the western Gulf of Mexico that’s being given a 50 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression during the next five days.

“No immediate concern exists at this time for our area,” the Weather Service says in a Sunday afternoon advisory, “but will continue monitoring over the coming days.”

The weather system over the Bay of Campeche became somewhat better organized Sunday and slow development is possible while the system meanders near the coast of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center said in a tropical outlook issued 2 p.m. Sunday. The system was eventually expected to move northward.

The chance of the system developing into a tropical depression is a low 20 percent early in the week, 50 percent later in the week, the Hurricane Center said.

Florida has been hit by 121 hurricanes and 37 major hurricanes since 1851 — by far the most of any state. With another eight hurricanes forecasted for 2021, it’s possible that one or more will again find their way to the Sunshine State, Colorado State University researchers say.

The researchers place the chance of a major hurricane striking Florida or the east coast at 45 percent with a 44 percent chance of landfall anywhere from the Florida Panhandle to Texas along the Gulf Coast.

Meantime, in the Tampa Bay area, the rain chance Monday was forecast at 70 percent, according to the Weather Service, falling to 50 percent Tuesday, 60 percent Wednesday and 50 percent Thursday before dropping to 30 percent Friday and Saturday.

Temperatures for the week were expected to approach 90 with a heat index as high as 97. On Tuesday, winds of 7 mph to 15 mph were forecast from the west-southwest with gusts as high as 22 mph.

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