Advertisement

Hurricane season’s next named storm could form early this week

The potential cyclone is on a path into the Caribbean Sea and potentially toward Florida, but uncertainty remains on its future.
 
The five-day forecast for the tropics from the National Hurricane Center.
The five-day forecast for the tropics from the National Hurricane Center. [ National Hurricane Center ]
Published Aug. 9, 2021|Updated Aug. 10, 2021

The next named storm of the 2021 hurricane season is poised to form this week just east of the Caribbean Sea.

The National Hurricane Center has given the potential cyclone a 90 percent chance of forming in the next two days. Early models show the storm’s path could take it over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and toward the Sunshine State by the weekend.

Related: Hurricane season could produce a few more named storms than predicted

Despite being on a projected path toward our state, Floridians don’t have to worry just yet, as meteorologist Julie Marquez of Bay News 9 says there is still a lot of uncertainty with the potential cyclone’s future. Meteorologist Grant Gilmore of WTSP-Ch. 10 tweeted Monday that the storm isn’t expected to undergo significant development, while ABC affiliate WFTS-Ch. 28 Chief Meteorologist Denis Phillips said he expects the system will likely be a rainmaker for the region.

If the disturbance were to develop and continue on its projected path, it would have to survive the mountainous islands of the Caribbean — known to significantly hinder the circulation of storms — before reaching our shores.

While still not developed, Marquez said the potential cyclone could soon lead to increased rain chances for the weekend.

An 8 p.m. advisory said the storm was moving west-northwest near 15 mph Monday, putting it on track to move across the southern Leeward Islands later Monday night, near or over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands on Tuesday and near the Dominican Republic and Haiti by mid-week. If the system is to reach Florida, forecasts suggest it would do so around Sunday morning.

The forecast cone shows the probable storm center for potential tropical cyclone six from the National Hurricane Center. [ [ National Hurricane Center ] ]

Tropical storm watches were issued for various Caribbean islands Monday evening, and the hurricane center reported maximum sustained winds near 35 mph, with higher gusts. The center also projects heavy rains and flooding are likely for the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Another potential cyclone was present in the Atlantic on Monday just east of the first, but Marquez said Floridians don’t have much to worry about with it. It was given a low percent chance of formation in the next five days, dropping down to near 0 percent in the Monday afternoon update.

“We’re not very concerned about that one,” Marquez said. “It doesn’t look very impressive.”

There have been no tropical systems in the Atlantic since Elsa dissipated on July 14. If the potential cyclone becomes a named storm as expected, it would become Tropical Storm Fred.

• • •

2021 Tampa Bay Times hurricane guide

IT’S STORM SEASON: Get ready and stay informed at tampabay.com/hurricane

THE TRUTH IS OUT THERE: Seven hurricane myths that need to go away

BACK-UP YOUR DATA: Protect your data, documents and photos

BUILD YOUR HURRICANE KIT: Gear up — and mask up — before the storm hits

PROTECT YOUR PETS: Here’s how to keep your pets as safe as you

NEED TO KNOW: Click here to find your evacuation zone and shelter