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Gulf of Mexico disturbance expected to drench north Florida, forecasters say

The chances of the rough weather strengthening into a tropical system are low, but flash flooding in north Florida is possible.
A satellite image shows rough weather that is expected to bring heavy rain to north Florida this week.
A satellite image shows rough weather that is expected to bring heavy rain to north Florida this week. [ NOAA ]
Published Jul. 12|Updated Jul. 13

Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center are watching a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico that has only a remote chance of strengthening into a tropical system but will still drench much of north Florida over the rest of the week.

Related: WEDNESDAY UPDATE: Rain to return to Tampa Bay as disturbance brings showers to Florida Panhandle

The rough patch of weather isn’t currently threatening the Tampa Bay area but rain will be heavy enough in north Florida that flash flooding could occur, forecasters said in an advisory issued at 2 p.m. Tuesday.

Forecasters said the chance of the weather developing into a tropical system over the next five days is just 20 percent.

The chances of heavy rain also extend west to Louisiana, forecasters said.

• • •

2022 Tampa Bay Times Hurricane Guide

IT'S STORM SEASON: Get ready and stay informed at tampabay.com/hurricane.

RISING THREAT: Tampa Bay will flood. Here's how to get ready.

DOUBLE-CHECK: Checklists for building all kinds of hurricane kits

PHONE IT IN: Use your smartphone to protect your data, documents and photos.

SELF-CARE: Protect your mental health during a hurricane.

• • •

Rising Threat: A special report on flood risk and climate change

PART 1: The Tampa Bay Times partnered with the National Hurricane Center for a revealing look at future storms.

PART 2: Even weak hurricanes can cause huge storm surges. Experts say people don't understand the risk.

PART 3: Tampa Bay has huge flood risk. What should we do about it?

INTERACTIVE MAP: Search your Tampa Bay neighborhood to see the hurricane flood risk.

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