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Atlantic tropical wave’s chances of strengthening are low, forecasters say

The hurricane season is off to a slow start so far, but forecasters still expect it to be an active season.
Forecasters are watching this tropical wave over the Atlantic, but said on Tuesday morning that its chances of strengthening are low.
Forecasters are watching this tropical wave over the Atlantic, but said on Tuesday morning that its chances of strengthening are low. [ National Hurricane Center ]
Published Aug. 9

Hurricane forecasters are tracking a tropical wave in the Atlantic Ocean that they say has a minimal chance of strengthening into a tropical depression by the weekend.

The tropical wave was located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands on Tuesday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 8 a.m. advisory.

Forecasters say some gradual development is possible between Tuesday and Thursday, but conditions by the weekend will be less favorable for the wave to muscle up as a depression.

Forecasters give the wave only a 20 percent of strengthening into a depression by Thursday and give it only a 30 percent chance of doing so by Sunday.

The 2022 hurricane season has been off to a slow start, but forecasters still expect a busy season, with a 60 percent chance that there will be more tropical activity than normal.

About 90 percent of hurricane season activity occurs from August to October.

In all, government forecasters are predicting 14 to 20 named storms. Six to 10 of those could become hurricanes, and three to five of those could be major hurricanes.

So far, there have been three named tropical systems in 2022 -- Alex, Bonnie and Colin.

Alex caused flooding in Cuba and South Florida in early June; Bonnie was the rare storm to pass over from the Atlantic to the Pacific in July; and Colin formed off South Carolina in early July.

The next named system will be called Danielle.

• • •

2022 Tampa Bay Times Hurricane Guide

IT'S STORM SEASON: Get ready and stay informed at

RISING THREAT: Tampa Bay will flood. Here's how to get ready.

DOUBLE-CHECK: Checklists for building all kinds of hurricane kits

PHONE IT IN: Use your smartphone to protect your data, documents and photos.

SELF-CARE: Protect your mental health during a hurricane.

• • •

Rising Threat: A special report on flood risk and climate change

PART 1: The Tampa Bay Times partnered with the National Hurricane Center for a revealing look at future storms.

PART 2: Even weak hurricanes can cause huge storm surges. Experts say people don't understand the risk.

PART 3: Tampa Bay has huge flood risk. What should we do about it?

INTERACTIVE MAP: Search your Tampa Bay neighborhood to see the hurricane flood risk.


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