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Good news, bad news on Tampa Bay area home prices and wages

The region’s home prices grew strongly last year, with more expected. Hourly wages? Not so much.
Home prices rose 4.9 percent in the Tampa Bay area during 2019. During 2020, a panel of economists and real estate experts expects the bay area's housing market to outperform the national average.
Home prices rose 4.9 percent in the Tampa Bay area during 2019. During 2020, a panel of economists and real estate experts expects the bay area's housing market to outperform the national average.
Published Jan. 2
Updated Jan. 2

TAMPA — The Tampa Bay area’s home prices rose nicely in 2019, and the outlook for 2020 continues to be strong.

Wage growth has not kept up.

That’s the composite picture painted by three surveys released this week by companies that track real estate and jobs data both nationwide and on the state and metro level.

Here’s the breakdown:

HOME PRICES: Home prices in the Tampa market rose 4.9 percent last year, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index. That was better than the 3.3 percent national average and second only to Phoenix’s 5.8 percent increase among 20 major U.S. markets. Miami, the only other Florida city in the group, saw a 3.3 percent increase.

Tampa Bay home prices went from down, down, down to up, up, up in 10 years

THE 2020 OUTLOOK: A panel of 110 of economists and real estate experts put the bay area among the housing markets they expect to outperform the national average during the coming year, according to home sales data company Zillow.

Of those surveyed, 38 percent expected the region’s housing market to outperform the national average during 2020, and 53 percent expected the market to be in line with the national average. Just 2.4 percent of respondents said they expected home prices to fall here in the coming year. Expectations for Miami were lower, with 23.8 percent of those surveyed projecting housing price decreases.

Tampa Bay ranks among top 20 metro areas in house price increases

WAGES: Tampa’s hourly earnings grew 1.19 percent in 2019 — the lowest gain among the nation’s 20 biggest metro areas and lower than the state average in Florida, according to the Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch.

Nationwide, a competitive job market drove an increase in wages of just over 3 percent.

Statewide, Florida workers saw a 2.18 percent increase in hourly earnings last year. Miami saw growth of 2.88 percent.

Meanwhile, the number of hours worked per week grew more than 1.6 percent for Tampa Bay area workers. That was second only to San Francisco’s 1.8 percent increase among the 20 biggest metros.

Wages remain the enigma of a solid jobs report


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