Florida shows small signs of partial economic recovery from coronavirus

Florida’s tourism-based economy is showing signs of a limited recovery after the pandemic devastated what was expected to be a record breaking year for everything from air travel to hotel stays.

Indicators that tourists are returning to the state — such as airline passenger counts and hotel occupancy rates — inched up after May, particularly around the beaches, when the state began reopening. Unemployment claims have dropped since spring.

But the visitors are nowhere near the usual masses, and unemployment remains perilously high. And the upticks are tempered by other areas of the economy that are still in distress.

While home sales came surging back in June and July, there was also a second-quarter spike in the number of people who were delinquent on their mortgages. Bankruptcies, too, began to rise through June.

And though the unemployment rate is falling after hitting historic levels, significant federal relief benefits for those out of work expired in July. A lesser replacement package appears on the way at last for Floridians.

Here are some trend lines.

Unemployment

After hitting significant highs in April and May, the state and national unemployment rates began to dip downward in June. The drop in Florida was largely due to the state allowing business to reopen during the pandemic, but economists say the state is far from recovered. Firms likely won’t see pre-pandemic staffing levels until 2022.

Florida unemployment claims, too, dipped as the state began reopening. But those who are unable to find employment, particularly in hard-hit sectors such as leisure and hospitality, are facing a “perfect storm.” A weekly $600 payment from the federal government to those out of work dried up at the end of July. Florida’s unemployment portal, which had significant issues early on in the pandemic, has regularly gone down for maintenance. The contractor responsible for the dysfunctional system was recently given preference for a major contract to bolster the state’s Medicaid data infrastructure. But this week, Gov. Ron DeSantis cleared the path for unemployed Floridians to begin receiving $300 weekly payments in the coming weeks.

Earlier this year, the spike in unemployment was expected to produce a significant number of bankruptcies, particularly among businesses. Consumer bankruptcies were also expected to spike later down the road. After dropping in April, the overall number of bankruptcies in May and June rose but stayed slightly beneath the highs of March, and the number of corporate bankruptcies increased slightly but have stayed relatively level throughout the pandemic.

Real estate

After April and May saw stunted home sales, the housing market came roaring back in June and July. Economists have attributed this to pent-up demand and rock bottom interest rates encouraging people to buy. In the Tampa Bay area, there were more sales in June and July than there were in those same months last year, pre-pandemic. The robust sales numbers were mostly fueled by homes priced at $250,000 or more, while lower-priced home sales lagged.

The competition for homes is intense because, in Tampa Bay and nationwide, the inventory of homes for sale is extremely low, a problem that Realtors say needs to be remedied with more construction.

Meanwhile, home values are also increasing quickly. The National Association of Realtors announced that for the first time ever, the national median price crossed over $300,000, at $304,100 in July. Florida is also following that trend, with Pinellas County’s median sales price also crossing $300,000 in June and again rising to $308,000 in July.

Foreclosures continue to dramatically fall, but that doesn’t mean it’s all good news. These numbers are being kept low because of moratoria in place preventing foreclosures from being completed during the pandemic. Meanwhile, mortgage delinquencies continue to rise. Particularly, the delinquency rate for Federal Housing Administration loans used to help lower-income and first-time buyers afford a house saw a record-breaking spike in the second quarter.

It’s still up for debate how dramatic the eventual increase in foreclosures will be after the moratoria expire, because many homeowners who are technically delinquent may be taking advantage of forbearance options that have become widely available during the pandemic. Florida’s modified moratorium on foreclosures and evictions is currently set to expire at 12:01 a.m. on Sept. 1, and it’s unclear whether Gov. Ron DeSantis will grant another extension.

Travel, tourism and spending

In another sign Florida’s tourism-based economy is rebounding slightly, sales tax revenue rose in June after missing projections in May by more than 30 percent. The June numbers reflect sales during the preceding month when Gov. DeSantis began lifting the state’s stay-at-home order.

One of the first signs of trouble for Tampa Bay’s tourism was the sharp drop in Tampa International Airport passengers beginning in March. Tampa International lost $5.9 million in revenue for March alone. While the airport’s passenger count began to rise slightly through July, the Hillsborough County Aviation Authority anticipates falling $75 million short of revenue projections for the fiscal year ending in September.

After months of rock-bottom numbers as the spring tourism season was shattered, hotel occupancy rates in Tampa Bay are slowly climbing back up. Tax dollars from hotel stays increased in June on both sides of the bay as tourists returned to the area, but both lagged from the same time last year significantly. Hotels relying on large events, such as conventions, are still struggling to recover.

• • •

Tampa Bay Times coronavirus coverage

HOW CORONAVIRUS IS SPREADING IN FLORIDA: Find the latest numbers for your county, city or zip code.

LATEST ON CORONAVIRUS: Six things we’ve learned about the coronavirus since March.

MASK UPDATE: Find out where you have to wear a mask in Tampa Bay

GET THE DAYSTARTER MORNING UPDATE: Sign up to receive the most up-to-date information.

THE CORONAVIRUS SCRAPBOOK: We collected your stories, pictures, songs, recipes, journals and more to show what life has been like during the pandemic.

HAVE A TIP?: Send us confidential news tips

We’re working hard to bring you the latest news on the coronavirus in Florida. This effort takes a lot of resources to gather and update. If you haven’t already subscribed, please consider buying a print or digital subscription.