90,000 Florida kids didn’t show up for school this year. Where are they?

The pandemic steered some to homeschooling or private school. But officials suspect many “missing” students are not being educated at all.
A Pinellas County school bus is seen making a practice run in Palm Harbor a week before the Aug. 24 start of classes. Statewide, nearly 90,000 students who were expected to show up for school never enrolled. “The troublesome thing is that the students we’re missing are the youngest," Pinellas superintendent Mike Grego told lawmakers recently.
A Pinellas County school bus is seen making a practice run in Palm Harbor a week before the Aug. 24 start of classes. Statewide, nearly 90,000 students who were expected to show up for school never enrolled. “The troublesome thing is that the students we’re missing are the youngest," Pinellas superintendent Mike Grego told lawmakers recently. [ CHRIS URSO | Times ]
Published Feb. 3, 2021

TALLAHASSEE — Florida legislators and local education officials are trying to pinpoint what happened to nearly 90,000 “missing” public school students, as public school enrollment estimates have dropped amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

A mid-school-year estimate by state economists projects that 87,811 fewer students have enrolled in public schools than were predicted to sign up for the 2020-2021 academic year.

“Imagine a school district just closing. That’s the size of this problem,” House PreK-12 Appropriations Subcommittee Chairman Randy Fine, R-Brevard County, told The News Service of Florida on Monday.

The Legislature’s Office of Economic and Demographic Research released the latest student-enrollment projection on Jan. 25, but it remains unknown how much of the drop can be attributed to students leaving traditional public schools for private schools or homeschooling.

“I hope it turns out that they’re all being homeschooled or in private school, and their parents just forgot to turn in a piece of paper,” Fine said, adding that he suspects a number of students aren’t being educated at all.

“We could have 9-year-old elementary school dropouts out there,” Fine told the News Service. “This will arc the course of their entire lives. Students are suffering enough because of the changes that had to be made because of COVID, some justified, some not. But to not go to school at all is a disaster.”

Student enrollment has an impact on schools’ funding, Fine pointed out to members of his committee during a meeting last week.

State Education Commissioner Richard Corcoran issued an executive order requiring schools to provide in-person instruction when the school year began last fall but allowed families to choose whether to send their children back to campus in person or sign up for remote learning. Under Corcoran’s order, school districts aren’t punished financially for students who don’t show up in person.

School districts typically are funded based on the number of students who receive face-to-face instruction. But, amid the coronavirus pandemic, Corcoran is allowing school districts to maintain funding based on their projected enrollment, as long as they are provide in-person instruction five days a week.

But Fine suggested the state shouldn’t be paying for students who aren’t in the system.

“Schools are getting the funding for these 90,000 students who are not attending,” Fine told his panel.

Fine told the News Service that lawmakers have the authority to address the situation.

“We as a Legislature could say, there will be no more phantom funding,” Fine said in a phone interview Monday. “That will create an incentive on the part of the school districts to find these kids.”

Follow what’s happening in Tampa Bay schools

Follow what’s happening in Tampa Bay schools

Subscribe to our free Gradebook newsletter

We’ll break down the local and state education developments you need to know every Thursday.

You’re all signed up!

Want more of our free, weekly newsletters in your inbox? Let’s get started.

Explore all your options

State economists won’t know until the summer how many public school students might have gone to private schools or are being homeschooled.

Florida Association of District School Superintendents CEO Bill Montford said education stakeholders have a “moral and financial” obligation to find out where students have gone.

“About 88,000 fewer students showed up this year than what we had budgeted for,” Montford, a former Democratic state senator from Tallahassee, told the News Service on Monday. “So, what happened?”

Montford, a former Leon County superintendent of schools, blamed the number of unaccounted-for students on “a multitude of factors, a lot of which centers on COVID.”

Sen. Bill Montford [Times (2015)]
Sen. Bill Montford [Times (2015)]

“We’ve got to dig into it district by district, to see where these losses really are,” he said. “It’s important for two reasons. One is, we absolutely have to know where these students are, not from a financial standpoint but more for their personal good. We’ve got issues like human trafficking and things like that that have nothing to do with school budgets. So most importantly, where are the children?”

The other reason why Montford said it’s imperative to learn where students have gone is budgetary.

“We’ve got to be careful when we budget for next year, because the way it works is, if there are less students who show up, districts don’t get the money,” Montford said.

Montford and some of the superintendents in his organization have a theory about the drop in projected enrollment. They believe kids they call “redshirt” kindergarteners may be sitting out their first year in school.

“We think that, out of an abundance of caution, a lot of parents said ‘I’m not going to send my kid to kindergarten’” during the current school year, he said. Instead, they’ll wait until COVID-19 infections begin to dwindle, he added.

Florida lawmakers have been considering the issue since committee weeks began in early January, in advance of the March 2 start of the 2021 legislative session.

Pinellas County school superintendent Mike Grego told the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Education earlier this year that the trend of missing students in his district skews toward younger grade levels.

Pinellas County school superintendent Mike Grego
Pinellas County school superintendent Mike Grego [ Pinellas County Schools ]

“The troublesome thing is that the students we’re missing are the youngest. Across the state, we’re looking at kindergarten and first grade,” Grego, who is president of the Florida Association of District School Superintendents, told the panel on Jan. 13. “In Pinellas County, we have child study teams in every school that are trying to find students. So it’s not the percentages here or there. It’s those students who have not appeared, and we’re wondering where they’re at.”

School districts are now in the process of gathering their own enrollment information, the Legislature’s chief economist Amy Baker said during January’s education estimating conference.

Districts are being asked to submit information “in regard to enhanced outreach and ... truancy and attendance,” as well as “anything they know from private school enrollment and homeschooling,” she said.

Baker said she anticipates the state Department of Education will send a memo to county school officials to inform them that the latest school-enrollment estimate “isn’t a typical forecast that they would get from us, but more of a platform or a baseline, and that they’re going to have a heavy lift to bring their 67 individual views into it.”

• • •

Tampa Bay Times coronavirus coverage

HOW CORONAVIRUS IS SPREADING IN FLORIDA: Find the latest numbers for your county, city or zip code.

VACCINES Q & A: Have coronavirus vaccine questions? We have answers, Florida.

FACE MASKS: Read the latest on guidelines, tips for comfort and long-term wear

GET THE DAYSTARTER MORNING UPDATE: Sign up to receive the most up-to-date information.

THE CORONAVIRUS SCRAPBOOK: We collected your stories, pictures, songs, recipes, journals and more to show what life has been like during the pandemic.

A TRIBUTE TO THE FLORIDIANS TAKEN BY THE CORONAVIRUS: They were parents and retirees, police officer and doctors, imperfect but loved deeply.

HAVE A TIP?: Send us confidential news tips

We’re working hard to bring you the latest news on the coronavirus in Florida. This effort takes a lot of resources to gather and update. If you haven’t already subscribed, please consider buying a print or digital subscription.