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Deal between U.S., Turkey spawns more questions than answers

Thursday’s deal called for a five-day pause in fighting between Turkish and Kurdish fighters and put a temporary halt to the battle along the Syrian border.
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo speaks as Vice President Mike Pence listens during a news conference at the U.S. ambassador's residence in Ankara, Turkey, Thursday, Oct. 17, 2019. The U.S. and Turkey agreed to a five-day cease-fire in the Turks' attacks on Kurdish fighters in northern Syria to allow the Kurds to withdraw to roughly 20 miles away from the Turkish border. The arrangement appeared to be a significant embrace of Turkey's position in the weeklong conflict. [BURHAN OZBILICI | AP]
Published Oct. 18

WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump hailed it as a great day for civilization, but the agreement hammered out in Ankara, Turkey, between U.S. and Turkish leaders spawned more questions than answers.

Thursday's deal called for a five-day pause in fighting between Turkish and Kurdish fighters and put a temporary halt to the battle along the Syrian border. It also gave the Turks the 20-mile-deep (32-kilometer-deep) safe zone in Syria that leaders in Ankara had sought for months. But what it meant for U.S. forces withdrawing from Syria remained unclear, and some fighting continued Friday morning in a northeast Syrian border town.

RELATED: U.S. delegation seeking a cease-fire with Turkey and Kurds

A look at the key provisions of the deal and remaining uncertainties:

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THE AGREEMENT

A U.S. delegation led by Vice President Mike Pence met with Turkish leaders, including President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, for more than four hours Thursday and agreed to the five-day cease-fire in the Turkish assault on Kurdish fighters in northern Syria. The arrangement said the Syrian Kurdish fighters would withdraw from what has been called a safe zone that is about 20-miles deep into Syria and stretches across about 78 miles (125 kilometers) of the central portion of the border between the two countries.

But almost immediately there were disagreements over what to call the deal and what it meant. Pence and Trump routinely referred to it as a cease-fire. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu rejected that term and called it a "pause" in fighting, because, he said, cease-fires are only possible between "two legitimate sides." Cavusoglu also said that the Turks would halt their operation only "after the terrorist elements depart" from northeast Syria.

What also remained unclear is what the Turkish-backed militias of Syrian fighters will do and how much control the Turkish military will have or try to exert over them.

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WHAT THE TURKS GET

In return for the cease-fire, the Turks will get what they have wanted all along: control of the safe zone in Syria and, if the cease-fire holds, a halt to the economic sanctions that Trump announced Monday when he warned that he could obliterate Turkey's economy.

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THE U.S. WITHDRAWAL

There were mixed signals Thursday over what the agreement means for U.S. forces that began a withdrawal from Syria earlier this week as fighting between the Turkish and Kurdish forces escalated and began to threaten the safety of American troops. U.S. officials said the ongoing withdrawal was continuing and would probably take a couple of weeks.

Pence reiterated that, as Trump has said, the U.S. will not have "military personnel on the ground" but other diplomatic and humanitarian aid would go on. He also said that the U.S. will "facilitate" the orderly withdrawal of the Kurdish forces from the safe zone that is already beginning. And Trump said that the U.S. will continue to watch the Islamic State and that the Kurdish fighters will control that monitoring with U.S. supervision. Pentagon officials did not provide an explanation of how that would work.

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ISLAMIC STATE GROUP

As the U.S. withdraws, a fundamental question is what the battle to prevent a reemergence of the Islamic State will look like. U.S. officials have provided little guidance, but they note that the U.S. can, if needed, launch strikes from bases in Iraq near the Syria border. In addition, the U.S. is leaving, at least for now, 200 to 300 troops at the Al Tanf base in southern Syria.

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ISLAMIC STATE PRISONERS

One of the biggest threats in the conflict has been the potential that thousands of imprisoned Islamic State group fighters could escape. Kurdish forces have been guarding the prisons, but some fighters have left to join the battle along the border. And shelling in some areas may have led to the escape of fewer than 100 detainees.

Trump said that the detained will be controlled by “different groups.” But he added that the U.S. “will be watching. We will be in charge. And they will be under very, very powerful and strict control.” That may be difficult to do if U.S. troops are not in Syria.

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