1. Florida Politics

PolitiFact Florida: Kriseman overstates poverty reduction in south St. Petersburg

St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Kriseman, right, stands up on a bench as he greets customers and supporters while talking about the stakes in the election during a campaign style stop at Cycle Brewing, 534 Central Ave, in St. Petersburg on June 15. (DIRK SHADD   |   Times)
St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Kriseman, right, stands up on a bench as he greets customers and supporters while talking about the stakes in the election during a campaign style stop at Cycle Brewing, 534 Central Ave, in St. Petersburg on June 15. (DIRK SHADD | Times)
Published Jul. 3, 2017

Mayor Rick Kriseman is trying to win over voters in his re-election bid with a pitch about falling poverty in a lower income neighborhood.

Kriseman, who faces former Mayor Rick Baker, says significant strides have been made since he took office, particularly in south St. Petersburg.

"We are seeing poverty being reduced in south St. Pete at a number larger than the national average, the state average, county or in Tampa, Jacksonville," Kriseman said after signing his qualifying papers inside City Hall.

This area of town is significant to Kriseman, who helped with efforts related to the 2020 plan, a five-year plan to reduce poverty by 30 percent in a portion of south St. Petersburg.

In order for this claim to be true, the poverty rate in south St. Petersburg would have to be dropping faster than in those other areas he named.

But Kriseman's evidence for the claim is imprecise.

Instead of providing data for that area, Kriseman pinpointed the poverty rate of the African-American population in the entire city of St. Petersburg between two years.

Kriseman's staff relied on a 2013 Pinellas County report that highlighted south St. Petersburg as one of five at-risk communities, areas marked by "high concentrations of poverty and a small return to the taxbase."

According to the report, approximately 48 percent of the population in this zone live in poverty. The demographic breakdown of those who live in poverty is as follows: 63 percent are African-American, 27 percent are white, 5 percent are Hispanic, and 5 percent are of another race.

City staff said given that the majority of residents in that zone are African-American, addressing poverty among African-Americans is a priority for the mayor.

So to support his claim, Kriseman compared the poverty rate for the entire St. Petersburg black population (which should go without saying, does not entirely live in south St. Pete) against the rates of other big cities, the state and the country.

Even with that allowance, the numbers don't hold up.

Kriseman's team sent PolitiFact Florida two sets of data from the Census Bureau's 2014 and 2015 American Community Survey for the African-American population. (The 2016 numbers will be released in September.)

According to that data, the black poverty rate in St. Petersburg decreased by 8.5 percentage points between 2014 and 2015, from 34.9 percent to 26.4 percent.

The other areas Kriseman mentioned — Pinellas County, Jacksonville, Florida, the United States, and Tampa — showed a smaller reduction in the black poverty rate, between a drop of 4.8 percentage points to a gain of .2 point, respectively.

Most importantly, the data neglects the large margin of error in census data.

Based on our calculations, the difference in the number of African-Americans in poverty — for St. Petersburg as well as the other locations — was statistically unchanged from 2014 to 2015.

In other words, there's no way to know for sure if poverty went up or down, because the change in the poverty rate is within the margin of error.

In 2015, the margin of error for data from the Census Bureau was plus or minus 25 percent, or 4,131 people. For 2014, the margin of error was plus or minus 17 percent, or 3,459 people. Those margins are significant.

The Census Bureau data shows that about 17,000 African-Americans were in poverty in 2015. With the margin of error, the estimated range is between 12,566 and 20,828.

The range of African-Americans in poverty in 2014 is between 16,596 and 23,514.

Taken together, the estimates show that the number of African-Americans in poverty could have held steady, or even increased from 17,000 to 20,000. We just don't know with a margin of error this wide.

Joshua Wilde, an assistant professor of economics at the University of South Florida, said Kriseman was using the best data available despite its imperfections. While he couldn't say this for sure, he said there was a strong chance that poverty fell in south St. Petersburg among African-Americans between 2014-15. He calculated the p-value — a statistical indicator based on the confidence interval — to determine the chance poverty fell based on numbers provided by the Census Bureau.

"Once you peel back the layers of the onion on the numbers, it turns out the best numbers we have are just highly uncertain," he said.

Still, Melissa Radey, a Florida State University professor who specializes in poverty research and data, said it would be better to have more years when looking at trends in poverty.

"Making statements about trends is not appropriate with only two years of data," Radey said.

Kriseman stuck by his conclusion.

"To dismiss the year over year Census report about the number of people in poverty as statistically insignificant overgeneralizes the complexities of real-time poverty eradication," he said.

For a statement that contains an element of truth but ignores critical facts that would give the reader a different impression, we rate this claim Mostly False.

Times staff writer Nathaniel Lash and senior news researcher Caryn Baird contributed to this report. Read more rulings at


  1. Signs at North Shore Park in St. Petersburg warn people Tuesday, Sept. 13, 2016 to stay out of the water due to contamination from partially treated sewage from the city's overwhelmed sewer system.
    “We’re way past the time of not addressing this issue,” said the bill sponsor, Sen. Joe Gruters, R-Sarasota.
  2. Kansas City Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes holds up the Lamar Hunt Trophy after his team won the the AFC Championship game 35-24 over the Tennessee Titans on Jan. 19 to advance to Super Bowl 54. [CHARLIE NEIBERGALL  |  AP]
    The Florida House and Senate have started “informal discussions” about making it legal in Florida. But Gov. Ron DeSantis doesn’t want a “broad expansion of gaming in Florida."
  3. Victoria Arriaga, left, does a letter-matching activity during Priscilla Perez's pre-kindergarten class at West Tampa Elementary School. [MONICA HERNDON   |   Times]
    The 148-page bill would lead to a new ‘grading’ system for prekindergarten providers, so parents can better choose programs for their toddlers.
  4. Gov. Ron DeSantis. [STEVE CANNON  |  AP]
    The competition, funded mostly by one of his biggest donors, Home Depot co-founder Bernie Marcus, creates a national competition.
  5. Democratic candidate for president Mike Bloomberg talks with Tampa Bay Times political editor Steve Contorno during his trip to Tampa for a campaign rally on Sunday, Jan. 26, 2020 in Tampa. [LUIS SANTANA   |   TIMES  |  Tampa Bay Times]
    Why are health care and tuition so expensive? “We, the public, want things that don’t make any sense economically,” Bloomberg told the Tampa Bay Times.
  6. Awwwwwww.
    If the issue pertains to humans, forget bipartisanship in Tallahassee. Cats and dogs? Now you’re talking.
  7. Kindergarteners learn each other's names while attending Roxanne DeAngelis' art class on Aug. 12, 2019, while attending Hernando County's first day of school at Suncoast Elementary School in Spring Hill. ["DOUGLAS R. CLIFFORD   |   TIMES"  |  Tampa Bay Times]
    The claim comes from a viral post on Facebook.
  8. Democratic candidate for president Mike Bloomberg visits Tampa for a campaign rally on Sunday, Jan. 26, 2020  in Tampa.   [LUIS SANTANA   |   TIMES  |  Tampa Bay Times]
    The presidential contender held his first Florida rallies on Sunday, campaigning like he’s already the Democratic nominee.
  9. “My body, my choice” was the rallying cry on the anniversary of Roe v. Wade in the state Capitol, where abortion rights activists decried a fast-tracked bill that would raise the bar for minors seeking abortions. (AP Photo/Aileen Perilla) [AILEEN PERILLA  |  AP]
    Abortion supporters worry about Florida’s move toward parental consent and what may follow.
  10. Democratic presidential candidate, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg speaks at the ​U.S. Conference of Mayors' Winter Meeting, Wednesday, Jan. 22, 2020, in Washington. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky) [PATRICK SEMANSKY  |  AP]
    It’s also the first visit by any Democratic contender this year