What doomed Marco Rubio in Florida? Dominant Donald Trump and strong turnout

MIAMI — As an exhausted Marco Rubio implored his most loyal fans Monday night to get everyone they know to vote, a staffer jokingly prayed for a storm to sweep across North Florida the next day and dampen support for Donald Trump.

The storm came but in a devastating way for Rubio.

Turnout on Tuesday was 46 percent, the highest for a Florida presidential primary since 1976. More than 2.3 million Republicans voted, blowing past the 1.7 million Democrats.

Trump won every one of Florida's 67 counties except for Miami-Dade, dominating his way to a 19-point evisceration of Rubio's White House dreams.

"It's almost like there's nothing Trump can say or do to stop this," said state Rep. Dennis Baxley, R-Ocala. "I expected, like a lot of people, given the lack of substance, to see the Trump phenomenon fade. It's just continued to gain momentum. The good thing is it's brought a lot of people to participate."

Though Trump's victory was stunning, it did not surprise political experts, given polling and the record turnouts he has driven in other states. Another early clue: Absentee ballots in Florida were coming back in huge numbers.

"You could sense you had a lot of folks who were not traditional Republican primary voters and others who had been registered to vote Republican but hadn't voted in the past primaries," said David Johnson, a Republican strategist in Tallahassee.

Even if Florida had not awarded all 99 delegates to the GOP winner, Trump would have won proportional delegates in every congressional district except Miami-Dade, leaving Rubio with only a handful.

Rubio stayed out of public view Wednesday, providing no clues as to whether he will endorse Ted Cruz, who now has the best, if still daunting, chance at stopping Trump.

Both Cruz and John Kasich, who won his home state of Ohio on Tuesday, are eager to draw Rubio's voters. Kasich lags in the hunt for delegates, but upcoming states — including Wisconsin, New York and Maryland — are more moderate and could favor him and give him enough strength to head to a contested GOP convention in July.

Trump, however, remains the overwhelming favorite and has withstood millions of dollars in attack ads from the Republican establishment.

Also Wednesday, Gov. Rick Scott endorsed Trump: "This has been a hard-fought primary, with an outstanding roster of excellent candidates, including two of Florida's favorite sons, and several Republican governors who are close friends of mine. But the voters are speaking clearly — they want a businessman outsider who will dramatically shake up the status quo in Washington."

Florida Republicans' top concern was the economy and jobs, exit polls showed, followed by government spending, terrorism and immigration. Trump won in every category, especially immigration, which only 12 percent of GOP voters said was their top concern.

Twenty-three percent of voters said the quality they most liked was a candidate who tells it like it is, and Trump got 80 percent of their vote. More than half said they liked someone from outside Washington, and Trump again ran the field, taking 75 percent of those voters.

He fell short among Hispanics, which was no surprise given his calls for a massive border wall and anti-immigrant rhetoric. Trump got only 27 percent of Hispanic support versus 52 percent for Rubio. Overall, Hispanics made up 17 percent of the Republican vote. For Democrats, it was 20 percent and Hispanics went for Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders by a 72-28 percent spread.

Democrats and immigrant advocates reported an uptick in Hispanic voter registration — which would hurt Trump if he is the nominee and has to win the crucial battleground of Florida.

"Our registrations doubled in the field in the last week alone as people registered in response to what are being perceived as attacks on the Latino community from the Republican field. I am seeing people who have never voted in their life registering so they can vote against Donald Trump," said Serena Perez, organizing coordinator at New Florida Majority.

Another sign of Rubio's weakness: Cruz beat him in 27 counties, most of them small, rural counties in North Florida. The largest county where Rubio finished third was Tallahassee's Leon County, but Cruz ran neck-and-neck with Rubio in Pasco, Hernando and Citrus.

That speaks to Rubio's falling out with the conservative base that got him the Senate job in 2010. Many said they felt used by Rubio, who went on to help write the 2013 immigration bill. Cruz and Trump both played up Rubio's immigration stance as supporting "amnesty."

Rubio's problems were deeper.

He didn't tend to relationships back home or get deeply involved in state issues, such as flood insurance. While Sen. Bill Nelson regularly travels the state, Sen. Rubio did not. Rubio portrayed himself as someone who could unite GOP factions, but that didn't work, rendering him the second choice of too many.

"Marco's personality has always been to please everyone, to be liked by everyone," said Al Cardenas, a former state party chairman and Rubio ally who backed Jeb Bush in the presidential race. "A lot of the rhetoric you hear from him is to try to straddle all the lanes and that just wasn't to be this year."

"Now that you look at what's happened," Cardenas continued, "you have to surmise that Marco Rubio, the young guy with the message of 'tomorrow,' kind of emulating the magic of Jack Kennedy, it wasn't going to happen in a year where people are looking for a different message."

Rubio acknowledged as much Tuesday night.

"That we find ourselves at this point is not surprising, for the warning signs have been here for close to a decade," he said. "In 2010, the tea party wave carried me and others into office because not enough was happening and that tea party wave gave Republicans a majority in the House, but nothing changed. In 2014, those same voters gave Republicans a majority in the Senate and, still, nothing changed."

It's unclear what lies ahead for Rubio, whose status is at least temporarily damaged in Florida. "He's no longer the crown prince," Cardenas said.

Rubio, who has already said he will not seek re-election to the Senate, could write another book and give paid speeches or return to TV as a commentator.

But Rubio also likely will seek a return to elected office.

"I always remind people, Ronald Reagan didn't become president the first time he ran," Baxley said. "His time will come."

A small group of supporters wept Tuesday as Rubio's speech ended, dazed by the Trump train. "I don't understand how people can be so blinded to a man that has no principles," said Gina Alonso, 44. "I just don't get it."

Ryan Rickling, 28, said he's worked in politics and pro wrestling. "Never before have I seen a candidate run their campaign exactly like a pro wrestling promoter, complete with a character and catchphrases. He managed to talk his fans to the polls. There's a difference between fans and supporters and Trump has fans."

Rickling knows how ardent those fans were. He volunteered for Rubio's campaign and made phone calls to try to sway votes. "Everybody that was for Trump was not going to be moved."