Hurricane forecasters are starting to get busy as two weather systems — one in the Gulf of Mexico and one in the Atlantic off the Florida coast — threaten to strengthen into tropical systems this week.
However, neither is expected bring much rain to the Tampa Bay area.
What is expected to drop rain later this week: The daily afternoon and evening storms that usually crop up every summer, but were largely absent last year.
Here’s what Tampa Bay can expect from the weather this week.
A look at tropical weather
On Monday morning, forecasters said an area of thunderstorms in the Atlantic could develop in the next few days while it moves west or northwest. The system will likely reach the Southeast United States on Thursday or Friday, forecasters said Monday morning.
Models are not yet in agreement of where the disturbance could come ashore along the Southeast coast, according to Christianne Pearce, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Tampa Bay office.
Pearce said that should the system reach an area like Jacksonville, it could bring showers to northern areas of the Tampa Bay area. If the system moves farther north, say to South Carolina for instance, rainfall in Tampa Bay would be less likely because the system would suck moisture out of our area.
That system has a 30% chance of tropical formation in the next week, forecasters said.
Pearce said the other disturbance the hurricane center is watching is not likely to bring any weather to Tampa Bay. Forecasters said the low pressure system forming over the Bay of Campeche is likely to become a tropical depression or storm by midweek while it moves west, further away from Florida.
Forecasters said the system as a 70% chance of formation in the next couple of days.
If it muscles up into the first named storm of the year, it would be called Alberto.
Tampa Bay weather this week
While tropical weather is unlikely in the next few days, the Tampa Bay area can expect rain later this week.
The week will start out dry, with just a 10-20% chance of rain through Wednesday, according to Spectrum Bay News 9.
By Thursday, however, a Bay News 9 forecast anticipates a 40-60% chance of rain through the end of the weekend. Pearce said the rainy weather is likely to come from our typical afternoon thunderstorms.
Those storms were more rare than usual last year, largely because the location of a weather pattern called the Bermuda High stunted their development. This week, conditions will be more conducive for those storms to form.
The drier days of the week will be hot, with highs nearing the mid-90s. The weather service expects the heat index with hover around 100 degrees in Tampa early this week.
By Wednesday much of Pinellas and parts of Hillsborough will have a level 3 heat risk, which is considered major and would affect anyone without proper hydration and a place too cool down, according to the weather service’s HeatRisk tool. The scale runs from 0 to 4, with zero meaning no risk and 4 meaning an extreme, rare risk.
The expected afternoon showers will cool off the area slightly. From Friday through Sunday, high temperatures are more likely to be in the low 90s, though the chance of dangerous heat remains high through the weekend, according to the weather service.
