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New technology in storm forecasting comes in time for 2016 Atlantic hurricane season

 
Published June 1, 2016

In the collective conscience of Tampa Bay residents who were here, it's known as "the turn."

On the evening of Aug. 12, 2004, Hurricane Charley was barreling northward into the Gulf of Mexico straight at Tampa Bay. More than 800,000 residents here packed up their cars and clogged evacuation routes to avoid a storm that was forecast to hit at Category 3 intensity.

Then, about 1 p.m. on Friday the 13th, the National Weather Service announced that Charley had swung to the right and was headed for a new target. About 3:45 p.m., the storm slammed ashore at the mouth of Charlotte Harbor, near Punta Gorda.

The turn showed the inherent shortfalls in the hurricane forecasting of the day. But officials with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration say new technology — from supercomputers to satellites — are improving forecast models to better predict storms like Andrew, Katrina and Charley.

Some of the most critical technology came on line this year, in time for the Atlantic hurricane season that begins today.

"We will know with higher certainty what areas will be affected so you don't have to evacuate areas unnecessarily," said Vijay Tallapragada, chief of the Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction. "The decision making process for emergency managers becomes much more efficient."

The backbone of NOAA's forecasting is the U.S. Global Forecast System, which takes data from satellites, weather balloons and buoys, among other sources, to create forecasting models including the one used by the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

In January, NOAA activated two supercomputers — one in Orlando, another in Virginia — that are so powerful they have their own names: Surge and Luna. Combined, these massive data-crunchers plug observations into mathematical algorithms that represent the physical properties of the atmosphere. They can do 5.78 quadrillion calculations per second, nearly four times more than the old system, to predict the formation, intensity and track of complex weather systems.

The former system could focus on weather conditions in grids of about 17 square miles and had the capacity to run models every six hours, or four times a day. The new system has a resolution of 8 square miles and runs models every hour.

"That means you are getting a better description of weather as it evolves in time," Tallapragada said. "This will enable us to track the evolution of a hurricane in a six-hour period, to give us a better track and intensity forecast."

It's now possible to predict the category intensity of a storm two to three days in advance instead of one to two days.

The administration has tested the model on hurricanes of the past, including Katrina, Andrew and Charley.

"With the new technology we could have predicted those storms much better five days in advance," Tallapragada said.

And could it have foreseen Charley's infamous turn?

"Absolutely," he said.

NOAA is about halfway through a 10-year plan to improve forecasting by 50 percent. In the first five years, accuracy has improved by 20 percent, officials say.

In mid October, NOAA and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration plan to launch the GOES-R program, a new generation of geostationary satellites that focus on the western hemisphere. The satellites are supposed to offer superior imaging with better resolution and increased speed for more accurate forecasts. It's the first major technological advancement since the GOES-I series launched in 1994.

The new technology is "exciting stuff" that should give Tampa Bay residents more faith in the forecast, especially when it comes time to call for an evacuation, said WTSP 10Weather meteorologist Bobby Deskins.

"We don't like to cry wolf, and we don't want to hype up a storm," Deskins said.

But large storms tend to bob around and can still make unexpected turns, he said, and the need to plan ahead hasn't changed.

"You have to keep the same vigilance," he said. "Just because we think we have a better handle on the forecast doesn't change the fact that a storm is coming and you need to be prepared."

Contact Tony Marrero at tmarrero@tampabay.com or (813) 226-3374. Follow @tmarrerotimes.