When Bill Clinton’s campaign was searching for a winning message in 1992, James Carville famously quipped, “It’s the economy, stupid!” The simple turn of phrase — which Carville later hung on the wall of Clinton’s campaign headquarters — became a focal point around which the entirety of Clinton’s campaign messaging revolved. And it worked.

One could easily argue that both of Florida’s major candidates for governor have been markedly less disciplined in their messaging compared to Clinton’s successful 1992 campaign. Perhaps in an effort to energize their party bases ahead of the midterm elections, both sides have leaned into hot button social issues and “personality politics.” But for most voters, those messages won’t move the needle.

In a recent survey conducted at the University of South Florida, I asked a representative sample of 600 Floridians to share their thoughts about the upcoming election, and the responses underscored one enduring truth: “It’s still the economy, stupid!”

When asked whether their votes would be more heavily influenced by pocketbook issues (such as jobs and inflation) or social values issue (such as abortion and LGBTQ rights), an overwhelming majority chose the former. Nearly three quarters (73%) of likely voters said that pocketbook issues were most important.

Moreover, when asked to identify up to three specific issues that would be most important in how they voted, more than half (52%) said “inflation,” while 48% also chose “jobs.” “Immigration” was the third most common factor identified (32%), with “abortion” being selected by just over a quarter of likely voters (28%).

While the survey is representative of the state’s population and does not attempt to model or predict voter turnout, it’s easy to see why the responses are good news for the incumbent, Ron DeSantis. When asked to rate the governor’s job approval in six key categories, respondents gave DeSantis his highest marks when it came to “jobs and the economy.” A 57% majority said that they either “somewhat” or “strongly approve” of the governor’s performance in that area.

Furthermore, while some have speculated as to the potential impact of Hurricane Ian on the election, a large majority of Floridians (72%) said that they approve of the governor’s handling of the crisis, including a majority of Democrats (57%) and independents (67%).

Indeed, the only place where the governor found himself upside down with voters was in social policy (that is, abortion, LGBTQ rights, etc.), where 43% approved of his performance, while 49% disapproved. While this opposition is likely to energize many voters in this election cycle, the governor continues to remain strong on the issues that Florida voters say matter the most.

According to the survey results, with less than two weeks to go until election day, the governor appears to enjoy a majority approval rating among Floridians (52%), though this does fall within the survey’s margin of error (+/-4). In contrast, 31% said they have either a “somewhat favorable” or “very favorable” opinion of Charlie Crist, the Democratic challenger. Nearly a third (30%) remained neutral when asked about their view of Crist, while both men were viewed “unfavorably” by 39% of respondents.

One thing that most Floridians agree on is the importance of this year’s gubernatorial election. When asked how important “this year’s election for governor will be in shaping Florida’s future,” 82% said “very important” while another 15% said at least “somewhat important.” Broken down by party affiliation, the numbers suggest an advantage for DeSantis in terms of enthusiasm, as 94% of registered Republicans said the election is “very important,” compared with 83% of Democrats and 74% of independents.

It’s important to note that favorability and enthusiasm don’t necessarily equate to commensurate votes, and modeling voter turnout has proven to be an increasingly difficult prospect for survey researchers in recent years. But these measures do provide us with valuable indicators of the shape and direction that the race is taking. And for Ron DeSantis, the indicators seem to be pointing up.

For both candidates, speaking to the issues that matter most to undecided voters will be critical in the waning days of this race, and for most voters, that means presenting a clear vision for combating inflation and maintaining economic growth. From there, it’s up to Florida’s voters to decide.

Stephen Neely is an associate professor in the School of Public Affairs at the University of South Florida. The survey referenced in this article was conducted between Oct. 14 and 23. A representative sample of 600 adult Floridians was collected via a stratified, quota sampling method, with balanced quotas (by region of the state) for age, gender, race, ethnicity, education, and political affiliation. The results are reported with a 95 percent confidence level and a margin of error +/- 4.