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LeMieux: A look at the sleepy U.S. Senate race

 
Published April 27, 2016

The 2016 presidential race is everywhere. It is a loud, thrashing, unavoidable campaign. Not since the Malaysian airline disappearance have CNN, Fox and MSNBC had it so good.

At the same time, another race is under way in Florida with little notice. Having chosen to run for president rather than seek re-election, Marco Rubio has left open a U.S. Senate seat. In the past, an open U.S. Senate seat has drawn high-profile politicians like moths to a flame.

The natural order in Florida has been that our statewide elected Cabinet officials have jumped at the chance to run for this most enviable of political prizes. Bill Nelson ran from the post of insurance commissioner. Katherine Harris did the same as secretary of state. This cycle, Chief Financial Officer Jeff Atwater flirted twice with running for Senate but declined. Attorney General Pam Bondi, a natural candidate for the race, has also bowed out.

So who is running? A collection of congressmen, the lieutenant governor and outsiders. Here's the rundown on the Republican side:

• Rep. David Jolly has served just over one term as a member of Congress from Pinellas County, succeeding the late, legendary C.W. Bill Young. Jolly worked for Young as his general counsel and also lobbied in Washington. He has recently gained attention by sponsoring legislation to ban members of Congress from directly asking for campaign contributions. He was featured Sunday on 60 Minutes for his efforts. Jolly is staking out a position as a moderate reformer. Representing a portion of Tampa Bay, he has name recognition in Florida's largest media market — the best place to run from in the state. He is leading in the polls on the GOP side.

• Rep. Ron DeSantis is viewed as the most conservative candidate in the field. He is a second-term congressman from Jacksonville who served in the Navy and continues to serve as a reserve officer. He has raised the most money on the Republican side and has the support of conservative special interest groups, like the Club for Growth, that could pour millions into the primary election to support him.

• Carlos Lopez-Cantera is the lieutenant governor and former Florida House majority leader. He is a center-right candidate who is looking to maximize his Hispanic and newly affirmed Jewish roots to capture a plurality of voters in the Aug. 30 primary. His position as lieutenant governor gives him access to statewide media markets, donors and opinion makers.

• Todd Wilcox is a successful businessman and former Army and CIA officer. He has been touring the state, and much like Rubio did in 2010, winning straw poll contests held by county Republican organizations. His personal net worth is estimated at $50 million and he is viewed as a sleeper in the race.

• Carlos Beruff is the most recent entrant. A successful Manatee County homebuilder, he is already airing commercials, having funded his campaign with $1.5 million of his own money. He is running a Donald Trump-esque outsider campaign.

For the Democrats, the choices are just two:

• Rep. Alan Grayson is a wealthy Orlando-area congressman serving his third term. He is one of the most liberal members of Congress and is running a campaign in the image of Bernie Sanders. He famously once said that the Republican health care plan was: "Don't get sick! And if you do get sick, die quickly!" He is embroiled in a congressional ethics investigation, accused of improperly managing a hedge fund while a member of Congress. He leads the polls for the Democrats.

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• Rep. Patrick Murphy is a second-term Palm Beach County-based congressman. He is the scion of a wealth construction family whose money propelled him to Congress and fuels his run for the Senate. Affable and moderate (he was a Republican until 2011), Murphy has been endorsed by President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden. Although currently trailing Grayson, he is expected by most insiders to be the Democratic nominee.

The challenges of running statewide in Florida are manifold. With a highway distance between Pensacola and Key West of more than 800 miles, and 20 million people in between, Florida is more country than state. Gaining name recognition is incredibly hard. Candidates cannot meet enough voters speaking to groups and shaking hands to move the dial. If a candidate hasn't run statewide before, or is not famous for some other reason, there are only two ways to gain attention: lots of money spent on media advertising, or the confluence of tremendous political skill and a political wave (think Rubio and the tea party movement in 2010). The latter is almost impossible to achieve in a year where a presidential race is sucking up most of the oxygen.

So who will win? Whomever has the most visibility on television, which will likely come from paid as opposed to earned media. The picture is further complicated on the Republican side with five candidates and no runoff. It is likely that the winner of the primary will earn less than 40 percent of the vote. Our founders viewed the Senate as a place where sober statesmen would use wisdom and judgment to guide our nation. Elections should not be solely dependent on who spends the most money.

Yet this year in the primary contests for the Senate, who spends the most money likely will win.

George LeMieux served as a Republican U.S. senator, governor's chief of staff and deputy attorney general. He wrote this exclusively for the Tampa Bay Times.