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NFL Picks Week 11: Tampa Bay Times staff predictions

Here are our picks for this week’s NFL games.
The Bucs have beaten New Orleans in three of the last six games Saints quarterback Drew Brees has started against them, including two of the last three meetings at Raymond James Stadium, where the NFC South foes will meet for a 1 p.m. game Sunday. [TAMPA BAY TIMES]
Published Nov. 14

The picks:

Visitor Home Eduardo A. Encina, Bucs beat writer John Romano, columnist Rick Stroud, Bucs beat writer Mike Sherman, deputy editor-sports Thomas Bassinger, sports data reporter
Pittsburgh Cleveland (-3.5) PIT 24-21 PIT 20-17 CLE 28-23 PIT 24-20 CLE 23-20
Houston Baltimore (-4.5) BAL 27-20 BAL 30-27 BAL 27-24 BAL 31-27 BAL 31-21
Atlanta Carolina (-5.5) CAR 24-14 CAR 23-20 CAR 28-27 CAR 24-21 CAR 41-31
Dallas (-3.5) Detroit DAL 17-14 DET 24-23 DAL 31-17 DAL 28-20 DAL 27-21
Jacksonville Indianapolis (-3.5) IND 20-17 IND 19-17 JAX 27-24 IND 27-23 IND 20-19
Buffalo (-5-5) Miami BUF 20-13 MIA 17-14 BUF 30-24 MIA 20-17 BUF 24-21
Denver Minnesota (-10.5) MIN 31-21 MIN 24-17 MIN 32-20 MIN 28-17 MIN 34-13
New Orleans (-5.5) Tampa Bay NO 31-24 NO 35-27 NO 31-27 NO 35-31 NO 26-23
N.Y. Jets Washington (-1.5) NYJ 17-14 WAS 23-20 NYJ 24-21 WAS 28-20 NYJ 21-7
Arizona San Francisco (-11.5) SF 27-24 SF 28-24 SF 27-24 SF 34-17 SF 24-14
New England (-3.5) Philadelphia NE 27-21 NE 28-23 NE 30-24 PHI 27-24 NE 33-23
Cincinnati Oakland (-10.5) OAK 31-13 OAK 31-20 OAK 34-14 OAK 31-14 OAK 28-17
Chicago L.A. Rams (-7.5) LAR 24-13 LAR 24-23 LAR 28-17 LAR 31-27 LAR 28-24
Kansas City (-3.5) L.A. Chargers KC 28-24 KC 26-21 KC 30-27 LAC 31-30 KC 35-31
Lock of the week CAR OAK OAK OAK OAK
Upset of the week NYJ DET JAX PIT NYJ
Picking Bucs games 5-4 4-5 4-5 2-7 3-6
Picking Bucs games vs spread 6-3 4-5 5-4 1-8 5-4
Against the spread last week 6-7 6-7 6-7 7-6 5-8
Against the spread overall 83-66 77-71 77-71 75-73 68-80
Straight up last week 5-8 7-6 4-9 5-8 6-7
Straight up overall 95-53 85-63 85-63 86-62 83-65
Locks 3-6 6-3 5-4 4-5 3-6
Upsets 3-6 3-6 3-6 5-4 4-5


  1. Frank Reich's Colts go for it on fourth down roughly 20 percent of the time. DARRON CUMMINGS  |  Associated Press
    Coaches, gradually, are changing the way they think about fourth down. Frank Reich is leading the way, while Bruce Arians is lagging behind.
  2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians stops to autograph a football for seven-year-old Jhamius Metelus, of Deerfield Beach, before the start of the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, November 10, 2019, at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa. DOUGLAS R. CLIFFORD  |  Tampa Bay Times
    Your guide to the Tampa Bay-Indianapolis game at 1 p.m. Sunday at Raymond James Stadium.
  3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston (3) listens as offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich gives him instructions during the second half of an NFL football game against the Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday, Dec. 1, 2019, in Jacksonville, Fla. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack) PHELAN M. EBENHACK  |  AP
    Rick Stroud | Bruce Arians says he wants to wait another month before making a recommendation to ownership. Here’s some reasons why.
  4. Indianapolis Colts kicker Adam Vinatieri (4) lines up for a kick against the Tennessee Titans during an NFL football game in Indianapolis, Sunday, Dec. 1, 2019. The Titans won the game 31-17. (Jeff Haynes/AP Images for Panini) JEFF HAYNES  |  AP
    The kicker and Pro Bowl receiver are injured. Expected back is former USF standout running back Marlon Mack.
  5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back T.J. Logan (22) runs against the New Orleans Saints during the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Nov. 17, 2019, in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Mark LoMoglio) MARK LOMOGLIO  |  AP
    Receiver Justin Watson will assume punt return duties starting Sunday
  6. Cameron Brate's collection of jerseys features teammates current and former and those of other players who probably have more in common with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end who went undrafted out of Harvard. [Photo provided by Cameron Brate]
    Tampa Bay tight end Cam Brate’s swap shop of jerseys is more than a numbers game.
  7. Indianapolis Colts offensive coordinator Bruce Arians in 2012 and Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach in 2019. LEFT: DARRON CUMMINGS | AP  RIGHT: JOHN AMIS I AP  |  AP
    The Bucs head coach received his first chance to lead an NFL sideline at Indianapolis: “There will always be a little blue horseshoe in my heart.”
  8. Bears receiver Anthony Miller dives in for a touchdown past the Cowboys' Chidobe Awuzie, right, during the second half on Thursday, Dec. 5, 2019. CHARLES REX ARBOGAST  |  AP
    Mitchell Trubisky passes for three touchdowns as Dallas loses for the seventh time in 10 games to drop to 6-7.
  9. Tampa Bay Vipers quarterback Aaron Murray tosses the ball during practice Thursday in Plant City. "It's grind time," he said. XFL
    The Vipers begin their offseason program in Plant City.
  10. Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston and the Bucs face the Indianapolis Colts at 1 p.m. Sunday at Raymond James Stadium. DOUGLAS R. CLIFFORD  |  Tampa Bay Times
    Here are our picks for this week’s NFL games.