TAMPA — Everyone wants to know what the Bucs will do with Jameis Winston.And if that wasn’t suspenseful enough, a bigger question may be what will do at quarterback without him?There are franchise-altering decisions that will be made by the Bucs next week, the most consequential ones since the team selected Winston the No. 1 overall pick nearly five years ago.It’s complex and nuanced and made more difficult because there may or may not be a new collective bargaining agreement between the NFL and its players by the time the new league year begins March 18.Before we dive deeper into the process that will have a seismic impact for the Bucs in 2020 and beyond, let’s examine the calendar of important events. Thursday – Prior to 4 p.m., deadline for teams to designate franchise or transition players. By 11:59 p.m., deadline for members of the player’s association to submit votes for the collective bargaining agreement. March 16-18 – Clubs are permitted to contact, and enter into contract negotiations with, the certified agents of players who will become unrestricted free agents upon the expiration of their 2019 player contracts at 4 p.m., New York time, on March 18. March 18 – Free agent signing period begins at 4 p.m. with the start of the new league year. Qualifying offers must be made for restricted free agents as well as tenders to all exclusive rights free agents.Thursday will offer the biggest clue as to where the Bucs stand on Winston.The decision will largely be based on Bruce Arians’ evaluation, although the Bucs head coach and general manager Jason Licht have worked closely on determining their path based on a host of different scenarios.Winston, 26, is an enormous talent. He led the NFL in passing yards with 5,109 last season and re-set his club record with 33 touchdown passes. The ceiling is high, but the floor to his performance is very low. Winston threw 30 interceptions and lost five fumbles, resulting in 112 points off those turnovers.In fact, Winston had seven interceptions in the first three minutes of games in 2019. By comparison, the rest of the league’s quarterbacks combined for 10. It was an unusual occurrence even by Winston’s standards. Prior to last season, he had only had one interception in the first three minutes of a game in four previous years.But Winston’s inability to protect the football negates his ability to make so many plays downfield.To complicate matters, NFL teams may be flying into free agency a little blind. Take for instance what will happen Thursday.By 4 p.m. teams must designate their franchise and/or transition players.But since 2020 is the “final league year,’’ for the current agreement, teams have the use of both the franchise and the transition tag. A franchise tag guarantees the player the average salary of the top five players at his position on a one-year contract and essentially forces them to forgo free agency.The transition player tag guarantees a player the average salary of the top 10 players at his position. But he is free to seek an offer sheet with another team that the Bucs would have the right of first refusal.So what happens then if the CBA is ratified after 4 p.m. Thursday? It isn’t clear, but teams will likely have to rescind one of those player designations.In the Bucs case, it may not matter much. Arians already has said retaining Barrett is a priority, which means he will get the franchise player designation if an agreement on a long-term deal can’t be reached with the NFL’s sack leader.Without a new CBA, the teams don’t know what the final salary cap figure will be, which effects their ability to do contracts.Fortunately for the Bucs, they have nearly $80 million in salary-cap space, the fourth-most in the NFL. Barring an unforeseen agreement prior to next Thursday on a new contract, Winston will likely become an unrestricted free agent.Paying Winston the franchise tag of roughly $27 million appears to be out of the question. The transition tag of nearly $25 million may be too rich as well. Furthermore, if Winston were to sign an offer sheet with another team the Bucs didn’t match, they receive no compensation. If he leaves as a free agent, they could be eligible for a compensatory pick in the draft.Arians has said he wants to see who is behind Door No. 2 when it comes to the quarterback position. He will have to wait until March 16 to do that, which would seem to indicate no player tag is coming for Winston.Where does that leave the Bucs? Well, once the “legal tampering,” free agency period begins March 16, the Bucs are among the 32 teams Winston that can negotiate with. Maybe he finds an opportunity to start and the contract he’s looking for. Or maybe Winston realizes his best chance to be a starter is to remain in Tampa Bay and they can reach an agreement on his market value.In the meantime, you can expect the Bucs to look around. Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is holding the league hostage a bit. If he doesn’t re-sign with New England, there will be no shortage of suitors and Arians has made it clear that includes the Bucs.Beyond that, the only unrestricted free agent quarterbacks the Bucs can be sure will be available is Saints backup Teddy Bridgewater and 38-year-old Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers.Other quarterbacks such as the Bengals Andy Dalton, the Raiders Derek Carr and the Jaguars’ Nick Foles may become available in a trade. But some of that is dependent on Brady.It’s possible that for all the change that has been talked about, none of it occurs. Brady remains in New England. Carr does the same in Las Vegas. Ryan Tannehill re-signs with Tennessee. The Chargers draft a quarterback and Winston remains in Tampa Bay.The suspense is building with each flip of the page on the calendar. Contact Rick Stroud at rstroud@tampabay.com. Follow @NFLStroud
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