USF women staring at No. 7 seed at best, ESPN bracketologist says

In the immediate wake of his team’s stunning loss Tuesday, as the fan base’s numbness was transitioning to disgust, USF women’s coach Jose Fernandez made a subtle plea for perspective.

“I don’t want one loss to diminish the job that (these players) have done ... because we’ve had a very, very good year,” Fernandez said minutes after his top-seeded club’s 65-53 defeat to eighth-seeded Wichita State in the American Athletic Conference tournament quarterfinals.

“We had a very good November and December, and over 16 nights we proved that we were the best team in this conference.”

Indeed, the Bulls (26-6) will move forward in March, thanks to what they achieved in the four months preceding it. An AAC regular-season title, a solid NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) ranking (30th entering Tuesday), and non-conference wins against NCAA Tournament-bound Texas and Alabama assure them of an at-large berth in the 64-team NCAA field.

Nonetheless, the body of work now has a glaring blemish, one that won’t escape the eye of the selection committee. Tuesday’s quarterfinal loss, in which USF made only four of 22 3-point attempts, was the first by a No. 1 seed in the AAC tournament’s nine-season history.

The consequences of that unsightly defeat will come during Sunday’s 8 p.m. selection show on ESPN.

“I think anything higher than a (No.) 7 (seed) is out of the question now,” veteran ESPN women’s bracketologist Charlie Creme said in an e-mail to the Tampa Bay Times. “I still have them as a 7, but as the lowest 7 versus the highest 7 before the day started. An 8 is now a possibility, too.”

The dreaded No. 8 seed represents a worst-case scenario for a team that might have been flirting with a 5-6 seed when the week dawned. A first-round victory in the 8-versus-9 opening-round matchup essentially guarantees a second-round contest against the region’s top seed on its home floor.

A No. 7 seed wouldn’t offer much relief.

Creme’s latest bracket projection (updated following Tuesday afternoon’s loss) has USF as a 7 playing Mississippi State in Storrs, Connecticut, with the winner facing the UConn-Fairleigh Dickinson winner in the the second round. USF is 0-33 all-time against the Huskies.

Then again, the Bulls had won seven in a row against Wichita State entering Tuesday’s game. As this month annually proves, mediocrity can segue to madness in short order.

“We’ve won 26 games for a reason,” Fernandez said. “We’re still a really good basketball team.”

Contact Joey Knight at jknight@tampabay.com. Follow @TBTimes_Bulls

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