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Florida Gators midseason review: Is a NY6 bowl game in reach?

UF has outperformed reasonable expectations in Year 1 under Dan Mullen.
 
Published Oct. 18, 2018

After Florida's historic Week 2 loss to Kentucky, expectations plummeted for Dan Mullen's first season as the Gators' coach.

A month later, No. 11 UF (6-1) is tied for first in the SEC East and a serious contender to make a run at a New Year's Six bowl game.

Here's our midseason review of the Gators, who are off this week before a pivotal matchup against rival Georgia on Oct. 27:

MVP

DL Jachai Polite: His four forced fumbles are tied for the most in the nation, and only six players have more sacks than Polite (seven). He showed flashes of success as a sophomore last season before suffering a season-ending injury against Georgia. Now that he's healthy, he's leading UF's much-improved pass rush and earning All-America accolades.

Best performance

27-19 win over LSU: While winning the Mullen Bowl in Starkville was impressive, the comeback to beat the Tigers is the clear answer. LSU has started to play up to its talent level for the first time in years. For the Gators to respond after an emotional win against a top-tier opponent this early in Mullen's tenure is an encouraging sign for his future.

Worst performance

27-16 loss to Kentucky: Yes, the Wildcats are talented and on track for their best season in at least three decades. But UF's 31-game winning streak in the series was something that survived the debacles of Ron Zook and Will Muschamp, so its end left a bruise. It wasn't a fluky loss, either; the Wildcats outplayed the Gators, more than doubled their rushing total and were more physical along both lines.

Biggest surprise

The defense: In 2017, UF allowed 27.3 points per game and 5.7 yards per play; the last time the Gators were that bad, the U.S. was recovering from World War II. Some improvement was expected, but UF's defense has turned into a strength. The Gators are tied for 14th nationally in scoring defense (16.6 ppg) and rank 24th in yards per play allowed (4.8). UF has almost as many sacks through seven games (21) as it had all of last season (23). As long as a thin secondary stays healthy, the Gators' defense should keep UF in every game.

Biggest disappointment

The offensive line: Although the numbers aren't bad — UF is in the top 35 in yards per rush and sacks/tackles for loss allowed — the line remains a liability. Its lack of physicality was costly against Kentucky, and Vanderbilt's eight tackles for a loss don't bode well for the rest of the season. UF has been able to scheme around this weakness with quick passes, but the unit's years-long struggle could catch up to the Gators.

Most intriguing game left

Oct. 27 vs. Georgia in Jacksonville: The No. 8 Bulldogs look a lot less daunting after getting trounced by LSU last week. That's the same Tigers team UF beat the week before in Gainesville. This matchup has short-term and long-term implications: Control of the SEC East is at stake, and the top-12 matchup will gauge how much (if at all) UF has closed the talent gap with Georgia.

Outlook

Coming off a four-win season and another coaching change, UF is overachieving. The Gators probably won't be favored in Jacksonville, but the rest of their schedule is manageable, thanks in part to a weaker-than-expected Florida State. Double-digit wins for the second time in six seasons looks feasible. If that happens, UF could be headed to its first major bowl game since 2012.

Contact Matt Baker at mbaker@tampabay.com. Follow @MBakerTBTimes.