2017 NFL draft: Of the top running back prospects, Dalvin Cook is the most explosive. Here are the numbers.

It can be easy to overthink football.

Allow Buccaneers coach Dirk Koetter to stop you.

"I've said many, many times that we believe — besides turnovers — explosive plays are the next biggest factor in winning and losing."

It's that simple: Make more big plays than the other team.

Tampa Bay didn't do that last season. The defense allowed more explosive plays than every team except the 49ers. The offense, which was expected to take a step forward, saw a 20 percent drop in such plays.

You could point to any number of reasons why the 9-7 Bucs missed the playoffs. Start with explosive plays. They are, after all, the key to understanding how the team has approached its offseason, particularly on offense.

Call it Operation Weapons for Winston, Tampa Bay's explosives recovery mission. Signing free agent receiver DeSean Jackson was the first phase.

We're on the verge of witnessing the next phase. At the NFL draft in Philadelphia next week, the Bucs have an opportunity to address the position that regressed the most last season: running back.

Their running backs averaged less than two explosive plays per game — a full play less than they averaged in 2015. Koetter has blamed that decline in part on injuries. Doug Martin and Charles Sims touched the ball half as often, leaving Tampa Bay to turn to Jacquizz Rodgers, Peyton Barber and Antone Smith. With Martin suspended for the first three games of this coming season for violating the league's drug policy, the running back situation remains unsettled.

The Bucs hold the 19th overall pick, and many draftniks have predicted that they'll take a running back. Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook could be in play. All are accomplished, but McCaffrey and Cook are particularly intriguing because of their production as pass catchers.

Whether they should invest a first-round pick on a running back is worth a debate. In this space, though, we're not going to make a case for or against. Instead, we're going to focus on big-play ability because … well, you heard Koetter, right?

To determine who has been the most explosive running back, we combed through the play-by-play of hundreds of games and tallied the runs of at least 12 yards and the passes of at least 16 yards. And of the three, the player with the most explosive plays was …

Dalvin Cook.

The former Seminole had 125 during his collegiate career, while McCaffrey had 95 and Fournette had 88.

Cook, though, played in more games and had more touches, so we looked at the rate of his explosive plays. He emerged as the leader there, too, averaging about three more explosive plays per 100 touches.

Explosive plays per 100 touches

Ranked from most to least

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Fournette's 31.7 explosive pass rate might jump out at you, but bear in mind that he had significantly fewer opportunities to catch passes (41 receptions) than Cook (79) or McCaffrey (99). The takeaway: Of the three running backs most commonly projected to go in the first round, no one did more with his touches than Cook.

If the Bucs wait, plenty of attractive options should be available in the second and third rounds. We looked at the production of some of those possibilities, and a couple of them were more explosive than Cook.

One player blew the rest away: Curtis Samuel, whose 2,535 yards from scrimmage at Ohio State were nearly evenly split between rushing and receiving. Like Percy Harvin, who also played under coach Urban Meyer, Samuel isn't a clear-cut running back or receiver. For some, that's problematic, but for a coach willing to embrace his hybrid skill set, he has the potential to evolve into a matchup nightmare.

Tennessee's Alvin Kamara was the next biggest home-run threat. He's not a between-the-tackles grinder — he carried the ball 15 or more times in five of his 24 games — but like Cook and McCaffrey, he's an exceptional pass catcher who makes defenders look foolish in space.

Explosive plays per 100 touches

Ranked from most to least

One more time: Koetter believes that explosive plays, after turnovers, are the biggest factor in winning and losing. Where will those plays come from this season? We'll soon find out.

Contact Thomas Bassinger at tbassinger@tampabay.com. Follow @tometrics.