/arc-anglerfish-arc2-prod-tbt.s3.amazonaws.com/public/RIF55NR4M5FDXPYKCQA5U62ZPA.jpg "Florida head coach Dan Mullen talks with referee Matt Loefler before an NCAA college football game against Georgia Saturday, Oct. 27, 2018, in Jacksonville.")
GAINESVILLE — No. 6 Florida knows everything at stake Saturday against No. 8 Georgia.
SEC East supremacy. A win over a heated rival. Conference and national championship implications that make the matchup in Jacksonville feel like a playoff elimination game.
“It very well could be,” quarterback Kyle Trask said.
Here’s something else Saturday’s marquee showdown at TIAA Bank Field very well could be: The Gators’ best chance to end Georgia’s divisional reign before it grows even stronger.
RELATED: Georgia football’s rise comes at the expense of Florida, in more ways than one
Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs are recruiting at an elite level the Gators haven’t matched in years. Georgia’s last three recruiting classes have all been ranked in the top three nationally, creating a talent gap over Florida.
UF’s only five-star player is linebacker Brenton Cox, a transfer from Georgia … where he was only the seventh-best recruit Smart signed in 2018. And unless the NCAA rules on his eligibility waiver this week, the Gators still won’t have Cox available this weekend.
Although recruiting rankings aren’t perfect, they’re good indicators of talent, which is the best predictor of future titles. If that metric favors Georgia in the future, so does UF’s upcoming roster situation.
It’s unclear what the Gators’ quarterback room will look like next year, but whoever remains will be losing five of their seven pass catchers, including Lamical Perine (who’s also UF’s leading rusher).
Linebacker David Reese — who has been one of UF’s top two tacklers each of the last three seasons — will be out of eligibility. Standout cornerbacks CJ Henderson and Marco Wilson won’t be, but they’re both expected to leave early for the draft. And UF must also replace two NFL-caliber pass rushers (Jabari Zuniga and Jonathan Greenard) whose value was obvious by how the Gators’ defense dipped when they were out with injuries at LSU and South Carolina. Both are expected to return Saturday.
RELATED: My AP Top 25 ballot: Are Florida Gators still the top one-loss team?
None of this means UF is doomed for a McElwain/Muschamp-level regression next season. Coach Dan Mullen has proven himself as an elite play caller and tactician in ways his predecessors did not. The Gators will still be a formidable team destined for a nice bowl, even after a roster reset.
But will that be enough to challenge Georgia for the East in 2020? Probably not.
Unless something changes Saturday.
/arc-anglerfish-arc2-prod-tbt.s3.amazonaws.com/public/RQLSLNR7PVBETCOCR2UUD6CPCM.JPG "Florida Gators coach Dan Mullen winces while looking at the scoreboard in the fourth quarter against the Georgia Bulldogs at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville last season.")
Mullen isn’t known as an elite recruiter, but it’s easier to sign championship-level prospects when you’re producing championship-level results. Beating Georgia would likely deliver at least one title (the division) and keep the Gators in the picture for more while knocking Smart down with a head-to-head win.
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And given how vulnerable Georgia has looked over the past two games, Saturday doesn’t look like another double-digit Bulldogs blowout. The Gators might not be favored according to odds makers, but they have a legitimate chance of victory.
The odds will only get longer next year as the talent gap continues to widen. Georgia’s 2020 class is only ranked sixth nationally but still sits eight spots ahead of UF.
The Gators need to do something to reverse that trend before Smart finishes turning Georgia into the East’s version of Alabama. If it doesn’t happen Saturday, then when?
RELATED: Dan Mullen, Kirby Smart talk Florida Gators vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Gator bits
Athlete Kadarius Toney (shoulder) is still on track to return after missing the last six games. Mullen said Toney looked good in practice last week.
Mullen on last week’s announcement that Florida-Georgia is staying in Jacksonville through at least 2023: “It's a really unique scene for college football…The landscape of college football is constantly changing. Right now, the next couple of years, it’s beneficial for that and then we’ll see as it continues to move forward, if that remains the case.”
RELATED: Florida vs. Georgia series to stay in Jacksonville through at least 2023
Contact Matt Baker at mbaker@tampabay.com. Follow @MBakerTBTimes
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