5 burning questions about Lightning coming out of the break

TAMPA — The Lightning will come out of the All-Star break in a strong position. To this point, they’ve played well enough to take a stranglehold on the third playoff position in the Atlantic Division while rounding out early season flaws in their game.

But their blueprint for success lies in steady improvement throughout the regular season so they are at their best when it matters most, in the postseason. That’s what this team has done the past three seasons in advancing to the Stanley Cup final, hoisting the trophy twice.

This season they have mostly followed suit. They’ve overcome growing pains from personnel losses and learned from their mistakes, never losing more than two straight games to this point.

Still, the Lightning head into their final 34 games, starting with a matchup against the Panthers on Monday in Sunrise, realizing they still have more to show.

“I would say we can play a lot better,” forward Nikita Kucherov said before the break. “And we still have a lot of areas we have to improve, and I expect us to be even better in the second half.”

Here are five burning Lightning questions coming out of the break.

What’s their biggest question?

Can the Lightning pick up where they left off post break, showing for the first time this season that they can consistently beat — and even shut down — playoff-caliber teams? In the eight games before the break, the Lightning played seven teams that either sit in playoff positions or are in the hunt and went 5-2-0. In each win, they held their opponent to two goals or fewer and got scoring contributions from all four lines. Of their next 11 games, seven are on the road, including a daunting four-game trip out west for games in Dallas, Colorado, Arizona and Las Vegas.

Can we expect Lightning to upgrade at the trade deadline?

The trade deadline is March 3, so a lot can happen in terms of which teams become buyers or sellers and which players become available. With few trade chips — the Lightning don’t have a first- or second-round draft pick this year or a first-rounder next year — and very little salary-cap space — their $719,967 in available cap room is less than the $750,000 league minimum salary — it will be difficult for Tampa Bay to work a trade. But general manager Julien BriseBois has been brilliant at overcoming such obstacles in past seasons. Because any deal would have to be money-in, money-out, it likely would mirror last season’s trade for forward Nick Paul, who had a $1.35 million cap hit, for forward Mathieu Joseph and a fourth-round pick. A Paul night not be out there this season, but potential targets include Canucks (and former Lightning) defenseman Luke Schenn and Senators forward Tyler Motte, both of whom have low cap hits, are pending unrestricted free agents and could be acquired at a nominal cost.

Does it matter where Lightning finish in the division?

Typically, the Lightning don’t care where they sit in postseason seeding because they’re confident that as long as they play their game, they can win anywhere. But given how much success they have had at Amalie Arena this season — their .820 home points percentage trails only the Bruins — they have reason to try to get as many home games as possible, especially in a potential first-round series against the Maple Leafs, who sit second in the Atlantic Division, 13 points behind the first-place Bruins. Though the Lightning have played better on the road recently, defensively they are a different team at home (2.56 goals allowed per game) than they are on the road (3.30). Tampa Bay sits five games back of second-place Toronto in the Atlantic, about where it has been since Thanksgiving. This year’s Maple Leafs team is better defensively, allowing .38 fewer goals per game (2.69) than a season ago (3.07).

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Which player can be the biggest X-factor?

The Lightning have started to get bigger offensive contributions from their bottom-six forwards, and that will be important throughout the rest of the regular season and in the playoffs. To go deep in the postseason, a team needs scoring from all four lines. The play of third-liner Ross Colton is something to watch moving forward. He’s settling in alongside Paul and Pat Maroon, and they’ve played a heavy game while possessing the puck. Colton isn’t on pace to duplicate his 22 goals and 39 points from last season, but he’s a key piece of the second power-play unit and has become a more physical player, which is valuable in a bottom-six role. Colton leads all Lightning forwards in hits, and he has a knack for scoring big goals at key times. Here’s the rub: He can be a restricted free agent after the season. Not that the Lightning necessarily would move Colton, but he might be their most attractive trade piece.

Can this Lightning team win another Stanley Cup?

Yes, because experience still matters. Though they have had nearly a 50% turnover of the Cup-winning roster from two seasons ago, the Lightning know how to win in the most pressure-packed moments. That’s the advantage they have over the rest of the teams in the Eastern Conference. A return to the Cup final likely would have to go through Toronto and/or Boston. While both those teams have become better defensively, which would make them tougher outs, Tampa Bay has shown that this year’s group can beat them. But it all comes down to which team is playing its best in the postseason, and the Lightning know how to flip the switch when necessary.

Contact Eduardo A. Encina at eencina@tampabay.com. Follow @EddieintheYard.

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