The Lightning have been nearly unbeatable at home. On the other hand ...

TAMPA — Chances are, the regular season is not predictive of the future. It rarely is in the NHL.

It’s been nearly 20 years since the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference went on to reach the Stanley Cup final, so it should not be a big deal that the Lightning remain stuck in third place in the Atlantic Division this morning.

Since 2019-20, the Lightning have finished second, third and third in their division and yet have won more playoff games in a three-year span than any team since the 1980s. So why worry now, right?

Without Victor Hedman in the lineup, the Lightning had one of their more impressive games of the regular season on Thursday night against Vegas, even if they ended up losing 4-3 in overtime. They controlled the puck for the most part and didn’t give up as many odd-man rushes as usual.

All in all, the Lightning are in a fine spot with the postseason around the corner.

Except, maybe, for this:

Will they regret it if they cede home-ice advantage to Toronto in the first round?

That’s what this month-long slump might end up costing the Lightning. On the morning of February 15, Tampa Bay was tied with the Maple Leafs for second place with 72 points, although Toronto had played one extra game. Since then, the Lightning have gone 3-5-4 for a .417 points percentage. The Leafs have gone 7-3 for a .700 percentage. And now, with 17 games remaining, the Lightning find themselves four points behind Toronto.

Is that a big deal? It wasn’t last season.

The Lightning finished five points behind the Leafs and eliminated them two weeks later by winning Game 7 at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto. Then they went on the road and beat the Panthers and Rangers, too.

Come to think of it, the Lightning have yet to lose a playoff series against a higher seed in the Eastern Conference since Jon Cooper’s arrival 10 years ago. Seven times they have begun a playoff series on the road in the East, and seven times they have prevailed. Their only postseason losses when they gave up home ice were the Stanley Cup finals against Chicago in 2015 and Colorado last season.

Based on that history, you really shouldn’t sweat the possibility of finishing behind Toronto in the Atlantic Division in the coming weeks.

But there is the nagging thought that this Lightning team has struggled on the road like none other in the Cooper era.

Tampa Bay is 15-16-1 on the road this season for a .484 points percentage. That’s even worse than 2017, when they had a .537 road percentage and missed the postseason for the only time in the past decade. And it absolutely pales in comparison to Tampa Bay’s 23-5-5 mark (.773) at Amalie Arena.

“You’re supposed to win at home. So maybe our record is a little better than some other teams are at home,” Cooper said earlier this week. “We’ve got a great environment here. The players are comfortable here, and when you play in the building enough you know where you’re going, you know the feel, the corners, you know all those things. We do, usually, put our best foot forward here.

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“We just have to be able to take that on the road with us. That’s been probably the slight concern over the year, being a .500 team on the road.”

That’s probably the best description. A “slight concern.”

And it would be a lot less of a concern if the Lightning hadn’t fallen behind Toronto in recent days.

John Romano can be reached at jromano@tampabay.com. Follow at @romano_tbtimes.

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