Tuesday, November 13, 2018

Tampa Bay Weather

Update: With cool front on the way, tropical disturbance in the Atlantic looks less likely to form

Increasingly, it looks like a late-season tropical disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean will not develop as forecasters originally thought it might.

“This system has not become any better organized over the past 24 hours, and environmental conditions may not become as conducive as previously anticipated,” the National Weather Service said in an update at 7 p.m. Monday. “Therefore, the potential for this system to become a tropical or subtropical cyclone has decreased.”

Forecasters gave the disturbance a 40 percent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next two days — down from 50 percent earlier Monday. Similarly, the five-day probability dropped from 90 percent to 60 percent.

Still, the system is forecast to bring heavy rainfall to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the next few days, the weather service said.

"We have a low pressure system developing mid-week and it will be moving northeast and runs along the Eastern seaboard," Rodney Wynn, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, said earlier Monday. "As it treks, it's going to steer the storm north and away."

That same low pressure will usher in some cooler Canadian winds later this week, bringing temperatures in the Tampa Bay area down about 10 degrees, Wynn said.

That will mean a splendid weekend for those who like cooler weather, with lows in the 50s starting Friday morning and highs in the low 70s through Sunday and into Monday.

If the disturbance were to strengthen into a tropical storm it would become Patty, the 16th named storm of 2018.

Stay with tampabay.com for updates.