Give thanks to the dry air.
Forecasters worried that as Subtropical Storm Alberto spun north through the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, it would fling moisture from the south toward Tampa Bay, assaulting the area with an endless barrage of rain that could lead to dangerous river flooding.
That didn't materialize, and photos taken Sunday from the Sunset Music Festival in Tampa showed sunny skies over empty concert fields — organizers canceled the second day of the event out of an abundance of caution.
EXTENDED FORECAST: The 10-day outlook for the Tampa Bay area
Instead, the low-pressure vacuum driving Alberto sucked up some dry air, choking its rain engine. Most of the bay area saw only spurts of heavy rain, with overcast and at times even sunny skies. Rivers have stayed in their banks, and any flooding has remained localized.
"We're lucky we didn't get more rain with this system, because we were kind of on the edge" with saturated ground and elevated river levels from heavy rains earlier this month, said National Weather Service meteorologist Marc Austin.
The story of Alberto has been one of fits and starts, Austin said. When the storm, in its infancy, took its first few spins in the northwestern Caribbean, it was initially buoyed by another nearby low pressure system. That created mild wind shear, which is normally bad for storm development. But the wind, about 10-15 mph, happened to line up with the then-nameless storm's circulation, Austin said, kick-starting the cyclone. Like blowing on one edge of a pinwheel.
That's why forecasters rapidly upped the storm's chance for development last week and concern grew for a totally washed out holiday weekend.
And on Sunday morning, forecasters put most of Florida's Gulf Coast, from the Lee-Collier county border to Alabama, under a tropical storm warning. That was because the wind field east of the storm's center was so wide, Austin said.
But then came that dry air, dampening the blow to the Tampa Bay area. The Alafia River at Lithia was at about 11.2 feet on Monday morning, which is in "action stage," though it was expected to drop by Monday night. Minor flood stage there is 13 feet.
"These subtropical storms that are somewhat poorly organized, can sometimes get a mixture of dry air into their circulation, and that can suppress more widespread precipitation," Austin said.
The storm's center was expected to make landfall near Destin between noon and 2 p.m. Monday. A tropical storm warning remained in effect from the mouth of the Suwannee River north of Cedar Key to the Alabama-Mississippi border. And a storm surge watch was in effect from the Suwannee to Navarre near Pensacola.
LIVE COVERAGE: Subtropical Storm Alberto bears down on Florida Panhandle
Down in the Tampa Bay area, it's still not a beach day. Alberto is expected to drag more moisture from the south over Florida, Austin said, bringing afternoon showers with possible thunderstorms. He said the rain chance dips Monday night, but rebounds Tuesday morning.
Even then, the rain won't be over. A pocket of moist air that was sitting over Cuba on Monday is set to arrive in Florida later this week, upping the chance of rain for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, Austin said.
For those who wish to dip their toes in the water this week, be warned: strong breezes will produce above-normal waves, ranging from 2 to 4 feet, and dangerous rip currents through midweek, forecasters said.
RELATED: Meteorologists are calling Alberto a 'subtropical storm.' What the heck is that?
The tropical storm warning and surge watch has been cancelled for all of west central and southwest Florida. There is still a high risk of rip currents along the coast today, so use caution if you are heading to the beach today. #FLWX pic.twitter.com/JUXnjIekXh— NWS Tampa Bay (@NWSTampaBay) May 28, 2018
The tropical storm warning and surge watch has been cancelled for all of west central and southwest Florida. There is still a high risk of rip currents along the coast today, so use caution if you are heading to the beach today. #FLWX pic.twitter.com/JUXnjIekXh
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from the Suwannee River to Navarre, Florida, for the possibility of life-threatening inundation along the coast associated with #Alberto. Water heights could reach 2 to 4 ft above ground level somewhere in the watch area: https://t.co/o9WtCmMo1c pic.twitter.com/8O8OiFXEKc— NHC Atlantic Ops (@NHC_Atlantic) May 28, 2018
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from the Suwannee River to Navarre, Florida, for the possibility of life-threatening inundation along the coast associated with #Alberto. Water heights could reach 2 to 4 ft above ground level somewhere in the watch area: https://t.co/o9WtCmMo1c pic.twitter.com/8O8OiFXEKc
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Times staff writer Carl Lisciandrello contributed to this report. Contact Josh Solomon at (813) 909-4613 or jsolomon@tampabay.com. Follow @ByJoshSolomon.
