Major Hurricane Milton barrels toward Tampa Bay

Forecasters expect Milton to be a major hurricane when it makes landfall “near or just south of the Tampa Bay region” on Wednesday night.On Wednesday afternoon, the hurricane was downgraded to a Category 3 storm with 120-mph winds. It was about 60 miles west-southwest of Sarasota and moving northeast at 17 mph as of 5 p.m.Though Milton’s wind speeds are slightly decreasing, forecasters emphasized the storm will be at or near major hurricane strength at landfall.“Category 3 or Category 4, it doesn’t really matter. It’s a major hurricane making landfall,” said Austen Flannery, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Ruskin office. “We’re still looking at the worst hurricane to impact the region in over 100 years.”Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall are ongoing, and multiple tornado warnings are in effect across the state. The storm is predicted to slow down as it continues moving northeast through Wednesday evening.Hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 35 miles from its center and tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 255 miles as of 5 p.m.Milton’s windfield was expanding as it neared the coast. Forecasters said its hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds should roughly double in size by the time it makes landfall.Storm surge in the Tampa Bay area was predicted to reach up to 9 feet, according to the hurricane center. Parts of Pasco County may see up to 4 feet of surge. Manatee and Sarasota counties were expected to bear the brunt of surge — between 9 and 13 feet.The worst of that surge depends on whether Milton makes landfall north or south of Tampa Bay. That would be impossible to predict before Milton reaches the coast, forecasters said.“We’re still looking at storm surge values that, in some cases could be double what was seen with Helene," Flannery said. “There’s still a very, very substantial storm surge risk associated with the storm in and around the Tampa Bay area."Because of how Milton is expected to interact with a front off the Florida coast, winds could be greater on the system’s north side, forecasters said.Regardless of where Milton’s center makes landfall, winds are going to be very strong in the Tampa Bay area, Flannery said.Winds will be strongest along the coast, but because of the speed and the direction that the storm is traveling, hurricane-force winds will push farther inland than recent storms, Flannery said.The Tampa Bay area was under a hurricane warning and tornado watch Wednesday.Flash flood risk was high for Central Florida. Milton may bring up to 12 inches of rain, with isolated amounts up to 18 inches, to the Tampa Bay area, Flannery said.Conditions began to worsen along Pinellas’ barrier islands Wednesday afternoon. St. Petersburg, Clearwater and Largo were under a flash flood warning until 7:45 p.m.Milton could bring damaging hurricane-force winds as early as 6 p.m., Flannery said.If Milton passes over communities in the Tampa Bay area, the weather service would issue an “extreme wind warning,” he said.“It’s basically like a very large tornado warning that is used to cover where the strongest winds are making landfall," Flannery said. “You want to treat that kind of like a tornado, but not like a tornado where it’s just a few minutes. You realistically probably need to shelter for potentially a couple hours or more."Vertical wind shear is expected to increase and weaken Milton later Wednesday, forecasters said.Milton’s rapid intensification rivals nearly every storm before it, forecasters said. Its wind speeds grew more than 90 mph in 24 hours, behind only Felix in 2007 and Wilma in 2005, according to the hurricane center’s records.Milton surged from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in about 25 hours.Forecasters said Milton was at peak strength Monday evening, when its central pressure dipped to 897 millibars. That makes it the fifth-strongest storm ever recorded in the Atlantic basin.The hurricane center repeated its message to Floridians: “Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida.”A tropical storm watch means tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area within the next day or 1½ days.A tropical storm warning means tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the next 24 to 36 hours.A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, and is typically issued two days before tropical-storm force winds.A hurricane warning means hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area, and is typically issued 36 hours before the first tropical storm-force winds.A storm surge watch means there is the possibility of life-threatening inundation in the next 48 hours.A storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation within 36 hours. A storm surge warning is in effect for the Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Yankeetown, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay, and Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia, including the St. Johns River. A hurricane warning is in effect for the Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay, and the Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach. A hurricane watch is in effect for Lake Okeechobee and the Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County line to the Palm Beach/Martin County line. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay, Lake Okeechobee, the Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach, the Florida west coast from north of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, the Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County line to Flamingo, north of Ponte Vedra Beach to Edisto Beach, South Carolin, and the extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos and Bimini. • • • 5 things to know about the 2024 hurricane season, according to forecasters. Forecasters predict ‘extremely active’ 2024 hurricane season. Here’s why. Could Tampa Bay flood insurance rise after a hurricane? A warning from Hurricane Ian Want to know what areas are flooding in Tampa Bay? Here’s where to look . Checklists for building all kinds of storm kits.

Major Hurricane Milton barrels toward Tampa Bay

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