DeSantis is going all in to defeat the abortion amendment. Is Iowa the reason?

Florida has never seen a campaign like the one against Amendment 4.Gov. Ron DeSantis has ordered millions of dollars in taxpayer money spent against the ballot initiative, which would nullify the current six-week abortion ban in Florida. The governor is crisscrossing the state urging people to vote “no,” and his appointed agency heads are blasting the same message from social media accounts daily. Some of those who signed the petition in support of abortion rights have been visited by state police looking for election fraud .The effort to crush Amendment 4 is likely to continue beyond Nov. 5 even if voters approve it. After the state released a mathematically flawed rep ort claiming widespread fraud in the amendment’s signature-gathering work, a mystery donor funded a lawsuit from anti-abortion activists seeking to invalidate the entire effort. The lawsuit is based on the state’s report.A DeSantis political spokesperson didn’t respond to emailed requests for comment Tuesday. But his allies and supporters say the reason behind DeSantis’ extraordinary push is straightforward. DeSantis is anti-abortion, and he thinks Amendment 4 is too extreme. They point to similar work he’s done against Amendment 3, which would legalize marijuana for adult recreational use.“I think it’s principled that he’s doing it,” said Brian Ballard, an influential lobbyist in Tallahassee and Washington, D.C. “He has political capital to spend and he’s spending it on this.”John Stemberger, a conservative lawyer and activist, said he believes DeSantis’ push has “nothing to do with politics.” It’s a matter of conviction, Stemberger said.But for a Republican with national political ambitions, there is significant electoral upside to leveraging the power of the state against political foes. DeSantis has sought the presidency once. Should he do so again, he could trumpet his work against the abortion amendment to conservative Christians — particularly in the early primary state of Iowa.Even if 2028 is years away, voters are taking note of what’s happening in Florida, said Kelley Koch, the chairperson of the Dallas County GOP in Iowa. Conservatives want to see DeSantis defeat Amendment 4.“We’re all watching what Gov. DeSantis does,” Koch said in an interview. “It’s really a pivotal moment for him and Florida.”Similar logic could apply to DeSantis’ push against Amendment 3. However, the partisan picture there is a bit more muddled. Donald Trump, the GOP standard bearer, has come out in support of that referendum. And although DeSantis is adamantly opposed to the marijuana amendment, he hasn’t done as much to defeat Amendment 3 as he’s done to beat back Amendment 4.DeSantis is termed out of his Florida office in early 2027. Whether Trump wins in November or not, there will likely be a different GOP nominee for president in 2028. For months, there have been signs DeSantis is planning his political future after leaving the Governor’s Mansion. In July, he quietly revived a political committee, sending texts to supporters about his speech at the Republican National Convention.The governor’s recent failed bid for president centered on Iowa. His political operation spent more than $53 million in that state alone, making him a household name in the Hawkeye State. Just before announcing for president, he pushed for Florida to pass a six-week abortion ban — against the wishes of some of his donors. His push against abortion then was widely seen to be a play for conservative Christians in Iowa.Although he lost to Trump, he left a good impression on the kind of voters he was trying to court.“We love him,” Koch said.DeSantis is distinguishing himself even from his own party in his opposition to abortion this election cycle. At the top of the ticket, there are signs that the Trump campaign sees abortion as a losing issue. Although the former president, a Florida resident, said he will vote no on Amendment 4, he’s been critical of the state’s six-week law . (Trump’s U.S. Supreme Court appointees were instrumental in ending federal abortion protections.)Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, who once said he supported a national abortion ban , has backed off that stance in recent months amid heavy criticism from Democrats. Vance, like DeSantis, is well-positioned for a 2028 run.Part of DeSantis’ brand is delivering conservative wins on issues other politicians only talk about. Since the Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade, abortion opponents have been unable to win a single statewide referendum on the issue. They’ve taken defeat after defeat, even in states that otherwise vote reliably Republican such as Ohio and Kansas.In those other states, opponents needed to convince a majority of voters that abortion should be restricted. DeSantis has an easier bar: Amendment 4 needs 60% approval to pass.Whether he’s doing it for political reasons or not, there’s a huge incentive for him to pull out all the stops against Amendment 4.“I wouldn’t be at all surprised if DeSantis sees this as a potential advantage among a core group of voters in Iowa for 2028,” said Rachel Paine Caufield, the co-chairperson of Drake University’s Department of Political Science in Des Moines.

DeSantis is going all in to defeat the abortion amendment. Is Iowa the reason?

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