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Tampa Bay could get a glimpse of fall weather to start October

Finally, a cold front is on its way. But will it reach the entire Tampa Bay region?
A couple who asked not to be identified are seen along the beach of Fred Howard Park Wednesday in Tarpon Springs.
A couple who asked not to be identified are seen along the beach of Fred Howard Park Wednesday in Tarpon Springs. [ CHRIS URSO | Times ]
Published Sep. 22, 2020
Updated Sep. 24, 2020

Tampa Bay could have drier, cooler weather come the first week of October

Yes, you read that right — no afternoon showers, little humidity and temperatures falling down into the 60s.

National Weather Service meteorologist Dan Sobien in the Ruskin bureau said Tuesday that Tampa Bay could see fall-like weather at the start of October because of a cold front that’s expected to sweep the southeast.

While the front isn’t a sure thing to affect the entire region — it could stop short at the Pasco-Hernando county line — it could at least bring cooler temperatures to Citrus and Hernando counties.

If the front arrives as expected, it would mean cooler temperatures about three weeks sooner than normal. The first real fall weather doesn’t typically arrive until the third week of October, Sobien said.

“We’re in that time of the year where we can start to see a transition into fall,” he said. “There is an early indication that early in October we will get a substantial cold front.”

How much colder will it be exactly? Sobien says there will be a drop of about 10 degrees, meaning temperatures in Tampa Bay’s northern counties could get down into the low-to-mid 60s.

The cooler start to October will be a relief to those who remember the weather to start the fall last year, which Sobien said was a warmer October than usual.

While some models show the cold front arriving in October, Sobien warned there is no guarantee that it will be as cold as currently projected. Models that predict weather more than a week out aren’t always completely accurate.

“It is not something I’d advise you to go to Vegas and put money on,” Sobien said of the potential of the front’s effects reaching the rest of Tampa Bay.